Impact of transport electrification on critical metal sustainability with a focus on the heavy-duty segment

Abstract

The majority of transport electrification studies, examining the demand and sustainability of critical metals, have focused on light-duty vehicles. Heavy-duty vehicles have often been excluded from the research scope due to their smaller vehicle stock and slower pace of electrification. This study fills this research gap by evaluating the lithium resource impacts from electrification of the heavy-duty segment at the global level. Our results show that a mass electrification of the heavy-duty segment on top of the light-duty segment would substantially increase the lithium demand and impose further strain on the global lithium supply. The significant impact is attributed to the large single-vehicle battery capacity required by heavy-duty vehicles and the expected battery replacement needed within the lifetime of heavy-duty vehicles. We suggest that the ambition of mass electrification in the heavy-duty segment should be treated with cautions for both policy makers and entrepreneurs.

Fig. 1

Annual lithium inflow to, outflow from and stock in global vehicle fleet. The subfigures show the annual lithium inflow (a), outflow (b), and stock (c). The results are based on scenario D2. VM: Vehicle Manufacturing; VS: Vehicle Scrappage; BR: Battery Replacement. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.

Fig. 2

Accumulated lithium demand and recycled lithium under different scenarios. The four groups of bars represent the results under scenarios D1, D2, D3, and D4, respectively. For each group of bars, the left bar indicates the accumulated gross demand; the right bar indicates the accumulated recycled lithium; the difference in the length of the two bars indicates the accumulated net demand, which is also indicated by the area of the circles above the bars and the numbers within the circles. The green circles represent the current estimates of global lithium reserves and the total identified lithium resources for comparison with the accumulated net demand. VM: Vehicle Manufacturing; VS: Vehicle Scrappage; BR: Battery Replacement. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.