A Model to Predict Significant Macrosteatosis in Hepatic Grafts

Abstract

Background and aims: Assessing the risk of significant macrosteatosis in donors is crucial before considering hepatic graft procurement. We aimed to build a model to predict significant macrosteatosis based on noninvasive methods.

Methods: From January 2012 to December 2018, liver attenuation indices and liver-to-spleen (L/S) ratio were measured in 639 brain-dead donors by local radiologists. Quantity and quality of steatosis were evaluated by an expert pathologist, blinded for attenuation indices measurement.

Results: Macrosteatosis ≥ 30% was found in 33 donors (5.2%). Body weight, body mass index (BMI), abdominal perimeters, history of alcohol abuse, L/S ratio, and liver parenchyma attenuation were associated with macrosteatosis ≥ 30%. The L/S ratio, BMI, and a history of alcohol abuse remained independent predictors in multivariate analysis and were used to build a predictive model (C-index: 0.77). The optimal cutoff to predict macrosteatosis ≥ 60% was 0.85.

Conclusion: Our model, including L/S ratio, BMI, and history of alcohol, might be helpful to refine indication for liver biopsy before donation after brain death. External validation is required.