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. 2020 Feb;212(3):113-120.
doi: 10.5694/mja2.50456. Epub 2019 Dec 26.

The incidence of childhood cancer in Australia, 1983-2015, and projections to 2035

Danny R Youlden  1   2 , Peter D Baade  1   2   3 , Adèle C Green  4   5 , Patricia C Valery  4 , Andrew S Moore  6   7 , Joanne F Aitken  1   2   8   9
Affiliations

The incidence of childhood cancer in Australia, 1983-2015, and projections to 2035

Danny R Youlden et al. Med J Aust. 2020 Feb.

Abstract

Objectives: To describe changes in childhood cancer incidence in Australia, 1983-2015, and to estimate projected incidence to 2035.

Design, setting: Population-based study; analysis of Australian Childhood Cancer Registry data for the 20 547 children under 15 years of age diagnosed with cancer in Australia between 1983 and 2015.

Main outcome measures: Incidence rate changes during 1983-2015 were assessed by joinpoint regression, with rates age-standardised to the 2001 Australian standard population. Incidence projections to 2035 were estimated by age-period-cohort modelling.

Results: The overall age-standardised incidence rate of childhood cancer increased by 34% between 1983 and 2015, increasing by 1.2% (95% CI, +0.5% to +1.9%) per annum between 2005 and 2015. During 2011-2015, the mean annual number of children diagnosed with cancer in Australia was 770, an incidence rate of 174 cases (95% CI, 169-180 cases) per million children per year. The incidence of hepatoblastoma (annual percentage change [APC], +2.3%; 95% CI, +0.8% to +3.8%), Burkitt lymphoma (APC, +1.6%; 95% CI, +0.4% to +2.8%), osteosarcoma (APC, +1.1%; 95%, +0.0% to +2.3%), intracranial and intraspinal embryonal tumours (APC, +0.9%; 95% CI, +0.4% to +1.5%), and lymphoid leukaemia (APC, +0.5%; 95% CI, +0.2% to +0.8%) increased significantly across the period 1983-2015. The incidence rate of childhood melanoma fell sharply between 1996 and 2015 (APC, -7.7%; 95% CI, -10% to -4.8%). The overall annual cancer incidence rate is conservatively projected to rise to about 186 cases (95% CI, 175-197 cases) per million children by 2035 (1060 cases per year).

Conclusions: The incidence rates of several childhood cancer types steadily increased during 1983-2015. Although the reasons for these rises are largely unknown, our findings provide a foundation for health service planning for meeting the needs of children who will be diagnosed with cancer until 2035.

Keywords: Cancer; Childhood diseases; Epidemiology; Registries.

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Conflict of interest statement

No relevant disclosures.

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