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. 2020 Jan 17;15(1):e0227407.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227407. eCollection 2020.

Complementarity of empirical and process-based approaches to modelling mosquito population dynamics with Aedes albopictus as an example-Application to the development of an operational mapping tool of vector populations

Annelise Tran  1   2   3   4 , Morgan Mangeas  5 , Marie Demarchi  6 , Emmanuel Roux  5 , Pascal Degenne  1   2 , Marion Haramboure  1   2   3   4 , Gilbert Le Goff  7 , David Damiens  7 , Louis-Clément Gouagna  7 , Vincent Herbreteau  5 , Jean-Sébastien Dehecq  8
Affiliations

Complementarity of empirical and process-based approaches to modelling mosquito population dynamics with Aedes albopictus as an example-Application to the development of an operational mapping tool of vector populations

Annelise Tran et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Mosquitoes are responsible for the transmission of major pathogens worldwide. Modelling their population dynamics and mapping their distribution can contribute effectively to disease surveillance and control systems. Two main approaches are classically used to understand and predict mosquito abundance in space and time, namely empirical (or statistical) and process-based models. In this work, we used both approaches to model the population dynamics in Reunion Island of the 'Tiger mosquito', Aedes albopictus, a vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, using rainfall and temperature data. We aimed to i) evaluate and compare the two types of models, and ii) develop an operational tool that could be used by public health authorities and vector control services. Our results showed that Ae. albopictus dynamics in Reunion Island are driven by both rainfall and temperature with a non-linear relationship. The predictions of the two approaches were consistent with the observed abundances of Ae. albopictus aquatic stages. An operational tool with a user-friendly interface was developed, allowing the creation of maps of Ae. albopictus densities over the whole territory using meteorological data collected from a network of weather stations. It is now routinely used by the services in charge of vector control in Reunion Island.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Location of the study area, Reunion Island.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Diagram of the process-based model of Aedes albopictus population dynamics.
In blue, the aquatic stages (E: eggs, L: larvae, P: pupae); in orange, the adult female stages (Aem: emerging, A1: nulliparous, A2: parous, with h: host-seeking, g: resting, o: ovipositing).
Fig 3
Fig 3. Prediction of the mean number of larval stages L3 and L4 per trap according to two variables: the cumulative rainfall over the last 35 days and the average of minimum temperature over the last 42 days.
The colors and the level lines are related to the model predictions. The circles correspond to the observations. The size of the circles is proportional to the number of larvae observed considering the climatic conditions.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Comparison of observed and predicted abundances in Aedes albopictus larvae from rainfall and temperature data at different sites in Reunion Island, 2012–2013.
The number of larvae per trap (L3 + L4 stages) and the larvae density (larvae per ha) are predicted by the empirical and process-based models, respectively.
Fig 5
Fig 5. Regional maps of predicted Ae. albopictus abundances using ALBORUN tool (process-based model), Reunion Island, 2013.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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