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. 2020 Jan 17;17(2):607.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph17020607.

Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use

Enrico Oddone  1   2 , Jordy Bollon  3 , Consuelo Rubina Nava  4 , Marcella Bugani  5 , Dario Consonni  6 , Alessandro Marinaccio  5 , Corrado Magnani  7 , Francesco Barone-Adesi  3
Affiliations

Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use

Enrico Oddone et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Even if the epidemic of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is still far from being over worldwide, the health effects of regulations banning asbestos can be evaluated in the countries that implemented them early. Estimates of MPM future burden can be useful to inform and support the implementation of anti-asbestos health policies all around the world. With this aim we described the trends of MPM deaths in Italy (1970-2014) and predicted the future number of cases in both sexes (2015-2039), with consideration of the national asbestos ban that was issued in 1992. The Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) provided MPM mortality figures. Cases ranging from 25 to 89 years of age were included in the analysis. For each five-year period from 1970 to 2014, mortality rates were calculated and age-period-cohort Poisson models were used to predict future burden of MPM cases until 2039. During the period 1970-2014 a total number of 28,907 MPM deaths were observed. MPM deaths increased constantly over the study period, ranging from 1356 cases in 1970-1974 to 5844 cases in 2010-2014. The peak of MPM cases is expected to be reached in the period 2020-2024 (about 7000 cases). The decrease will be slow: about 26,000 MPM cases are expected to occur in Italy during the next 20 years (2020-2039). The MPM epidemic in Italy is far from being concluded despite the national ban implemented in 1992, and the peak is expected in 2020-2024, in both sexes. Our results are consistent with international literature.

Keywords: age–period–cohort; asbestos ban; epidemic; pleural mesothelioma; trends.

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Conflict of interest statement

E.O., D.C., C.M., and F.B-A. served as consultants for the court in trials concerning asbestos-related diseases.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Malignant pleural mesothelioma death rates (×100,000) by age and birth cohort. Men, Italy, 1970–2014.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Malignant pleural mesothelioma death rates (×100,000) by age and birth cohort. Men, Italy, 1970–2014.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Malignant pleural mesothelioma death rates (×100,000) by age and birth cohort. Women, Italy, 1970–2014.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Observed and predicted number of cases of malignant pleural mesothelioma, with 95% predicted intervals. Age–period–cohort model, Italy, 1970–2039.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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