Impact of Patient-Level Characteristics on In-hospital Mortality After Interhospital Transfer to Medicine Services: an Observational Study

Abstract

Background: National administrative datasets have demonstrated increased risk-adjusted mortality among patients undergoing interhospital transfer (IHT) compared to patients admitted through the emergency department (ED).

Objective: To investigate the impact of patient-level data not available in larger administrative datasets on the association between IHT status and in-hospital mortality.

Design: Retrospective cohort study with logistic regression analyses to examine the association between IHT status and in-hospital mortality, controlling for covariates that were potential confounders. Model 1: IHT status, admit service. Model 2: model 1 and patient demographics. Model 3: model 2 and disease-specific conditions. Model 4: model 3 and vital signs and laboratory data.

Participants: Nine thousand three hundred twenty-eight adults admitted to Medicine services.

Main measures: Interhospital transfer status, coded as an unordered categorical variable (IHT vs ED vs clinic), was the independent variable. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included unadjusted length of stay and total cost.

Key results: IHT patients accounted for 180 out of 484 (37%) in-hospital deaths, despite accounting for only 17% of total admissions. Unadjusted mean length of stay was 8.4 days vs 5.6 days (p < 0.0001) and mean total cost was $22,647 vs $12,968 (p < 0.0001) for patients admitted via IHT vs ED respectively. The odds ratios (OR) for in-hospital mortality for patients admitted via IHT compared to the ED were as follows: model 1 OR, 2.06 (95% CI 1.66-2.56, p < 0.0001); model 2 OR, 2.07 (95% CI 1.66-2.58, p < 0.0001); model 3 OR, 2.07 (95% CI 1.63-2.61, p < 0.0001); model 4 OR, 1.70 (95% CI 1.31-2.19, p < 0.0001). The AUCs of the models were as follows: model 1, 0.74; model 2, 0.76; model 3, 0.83; model 4, 0.88, consistent with a good prediction model.

Conclusions: Patient-level characteristics affect the association between IHT and in-hospital mortality. After adjusting for patient-level clinical characteristics, IHT status remains associated with in-hospital mortality.

Keywords: cost; health services research; hospital medicine.

Figure 1

Comparison of receiver-operating characteristic curves of the four predictive models