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. 2020 Jan;110(S1):S109-S115.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2019.305413.

County Jail Incarceration Rates and County Mortality Rates in the United States, 1987-2016

Sandhya Kajeepeta  1 , Caroline G Rutherford  1 , Katherine M Keyes  1 , Abdulrahman M El-Sayed  1 , Seth J Prins  1
Affiliations

County Jail Incarceration Rates and County Mortality Rates in the United States, 1987-2016

Sandhya Kajeepeta et al. Am J Public Health. 2020 Jan.

Abstract

Objectives. To evaluate the relationship between changes in county jail incarceration rates and subsequent county mortality rates across the United States.Methods. We analyzed county jail incarceration rates from the Bureau of Justice Statistics from 1987 to 2016 for 1884 counties and mortality rates from the National Vital Statistics System. We fit 1-year-lagged quasi-Poisson 2-way fixed-effects models, controlling for unmeasured stable county characteristics, and measured time-varying confounders, including county poverty and crime rates.Results. A within-county increase in jail incarceration rates from the first to second quartile was associated with a 2.5% increase in mortality rates, adjusting for confounders (risk ratio [RR] = 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02, 1.03). This association followed a dose-response relationship and was stronger for mortality among those aged 15 to 34 years (RR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.06, 1.09).Conclusions. Within-county increases in jail incarceration rates are associated with increases in subsequent mortality rates after adjusting for important confounders.Public Health Implications. Our findings add to the growing body of empirical evidence of the harms of mass incarceration. The criminal justice reform and decarceration movements can use these findings as they develop strategies to end mass incarceration.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Associations Between Quartile Change in County Jail Incarceration Rate and Change in County Mortality Rates for (a) Total and Ages (b) < 15, (c) 15–34, (d) 35–54, (e) 55–74, and (f) ≥ 75 Years: United States, 1987–2016 Note. CI = confidence interval; RR = risk ratio. Numerical findings are presented in Table B (available as a supplement to the online version of this article at http://www.ajph.org).
FIGURE 2—
FIGURE 2—
Model-Predicted Age-Specific Mortality Rates (per 100 000) as a Function of Within-County Change in Jail Incarceration Rate (per 100): United States, 1987–2016
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