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Editorial
. 2020 Jan 24;9(2):330.
doi: 10.3390/jcm9020330.

The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020

Hiroshi Nishiura  1   2 , Sung-Mok Jung  1 , Natalie M Linton  1 , Ryo Kinoshita  1 , Yichi Yang  1 , Katsuma Hayashi  1 , Tetsuro Kobayashi  1 , Baoyin Yuan  1 , Andrei R Akhmetzhanov  1
Affiliations
Editorial

The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020

Hiroshi Nishiura et al. J Clin Med. .

Abstract

A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred.

Keywords: emerging infectious diseases; epidemiology; foreigner; importation; migration; travel.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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