Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Comment
. 2020 Apr;92(4):448-454.
doi: 10.1002/jmv.25693. Epub 2020 Feb 14.

Potential of large "first generation" human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV

Xingguang Li  1 , Junjie Zai  2 , Xiaomei Wang  1 , Yi Li  1
Affiliations
Comment

Potential of large "first generation" human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV

Xingguang Li et al. J Med Virol. 2020 Apr.

Abstract

To investigate the genetic diversity, time origin, and evolutionary history of the 2019-nCoV outbreak in China and Thailand, a total of 12 genome sequences of the virus with known sampling date (24 December 2019 and 13 January 2020) and geographic location (primarily Wuhan city, Hubei Province, China, but also Bangkok, Thailand) were analyzed. Phylogenetic and likelihood-mapping analyses of these genome sequences were performed. On the basis of our results, the star-like signal and topology of 2019-nCoV may be indicative of potentially large "first generation" human-to-human virus transmission. We estimated that 2019-nCoV likely originated in Wuhan on 9 November 2019 (95% credible interval: 25 September 2019 and 19 December 2019), and that Wuhan is the major hub for the spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak in China and elsewhere. Our results could be useful for designing effective prevention strategies for 2019-nCoV in China and beyond.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV; Bangkok; TMRCA; Wuhan; outbreak.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that there are no conflict of interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Likelihood‐mapping analyses of 12 genome sequences of 2019‐nCOV. Likelihoods of three tree topologies for each possible quartet (or for a random sample of quartets) are denoted by a data point in an equilateral triangle. The distribution of points in the seven areas of the triangle reflects tree‐likeness of the data. Specifically, three corners represent fully resolved tree topologies; center represents an unresolved (star) phylogeny, and sides represent support for conflicting tree topologies
Figure 2
Figure 2
Maximum‐likelihood phylogeny of 12 genome sequences of 2019‐nCOV. Points are color‐coded by city of origin. Tree is midpoint rooted
Figure 3
Figure 3
Regression of root‐to‐tip genetic distance against the year of sampling for 2019‐nCOV. Points are color‐coded by the city of origin. Gray indicates the linear regression line
Figure 4
Figure 4
Maximum clade credibility tree estimated from 12 genome sequences of 2019‐nCOV. The number near node represents the most probable geographic location of descendent branches. Nodes are color‐coded by the city of origin
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment on

  • A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin.
    Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, Hu B, Zhang L, Zhang W, Si HR, Zhu Y, Li B, Huang CL, Chen HD, Chen J, Luo Y, Guo H, Jiang RD, Liu MQ, Chen Y, Shen XR, Wang X, Zheng XS, Zhao K, Chen QJ, Deng F, Liu LL, Yan B, Zhan FX, Wang YY, Xiao GF, Shi ZL. Zhou P, et al. Nature. 2020 Mar;579(7798):270-273. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7. Epub 2020 Feb 3. Nature. 2020. PMID: 32015507 Free PMC article.

References

    1. Drosten C, Günther S, Preiser W, et al. Identification of a novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome. N Engl J Med. 2003;348:1967‐1976. 10.1056/NEJMoa030747 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Fouchier RAM, Hartwig NG, Bestebroer TM, et al. A previously undescribed coronavirus associated with respiratory disease in humans. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004;101:6212‐6216. 10.1073/pnas.0400762101 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Ksiazek TG, Erdman D, Goldsmith CS, et al. A novel coronavirus associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome. N Engl J Med. 2003;348:1953‐1966. 10.1056/NEJMoa030781 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Zaki AM, van Boheemen S, Bestebroer TM, Osterhaus AD, Fouchier RA. Isolation of a novel coronavirus from a man with pneumonia in Saudi Arabia. N Engl J Med. 2012;367:1814‐1820. 10.1056/NEJMoa1211721 - DOI - PubMed
    1. de Groot RJ, Baker SC, Baric RS, et al. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV): announcement of the Coronavirus Study Group. J Virol. 2013;87:7790‐7792. 10.1128/JVI.01244-13 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

Publication types