Cancer Incidence Trends From 1999 to 2015 And Contributions Of Various Cancer Types To The Overall Burden: Projections To 2030 And Extrapolation Of Economic Burden In Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Background: Cancer incidence in Saudi Arabia has increased for the last two decades, ratcheting up to global levels. The study aimed to analyze cancer trends and the contributions of various cancer types, forecast incidence, and estimate the economic burden in 2030.

Methods: A national-level cohort study utilizing the Data of Cancer Registry of patients who were diagnosed in 1999-2015. New cases in 2016-2030 were forecast and predicted based on 1999-2015 data. We used growth assumption and regression analysis to predict the trends of cancer cases. We assessed the contributions of cancer types to incidence trends. We carried forecasting of new cases and extrapolation of the potential economic burden. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of the cost of cancer with respect to changes in economic and epidemiologic factors.

Results: The findings suggest that the number of known cancer cases increased by 136% from 1999 to 2015 and is projected to rise by 63% in 2030. The forecast indicates female cases will account for higher number of cases and greater proportion increase. The future cost of all cancer types would be estimated at $7.91 billion in 2015 value, of which $3.76 billion will be attributable to care management and $4.15 billion in lost productivity. With the assumption of growth of the aged-standardized incidence rate, the costs of care management and lost productivity are projected to be $5.85 and $6.47 billion, respectively in 2030, an increase of 56% in each component. The future undiscounted total estimated economic burden for the period 2015-2030 would be $159.44 billion, of which 47.5% will be attributable to care management. Estimates were robust to uncertainty, but the 5-year prevalence of cancer survivorship would account for the greatest variability.

Conclusion: Our model showed an upsurge of cancer burden in terms of incidence and the potential economic burden, which may inform cancer control measures.

Keywords: Saudi Arabia; cancer economic burden; cancer trends; the 2030 cancer burden projection.

Figure 1

Total number of cancer cases by gender and nationality (1999–2030). The continuous lines are trends from 1999 to 2015. The dotted lines represent the projected cases (2016–2030).

Figure 2

Top cancer cases by type (1999–2030). The continuous lines are trends from 1999 to 2015. The dotted lines represent the projected cases (2016–2030).

Figure 3

A tornado diagram depicting the sensitivity of present and future value of cost of cancer (management care and productivity lost) ($ billion) with respect to epidemiologic and economic factors: 2015–2030.