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. 2020 Jan 24;8(1):e14800.
doi: 10.2196/14800.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Mainland China: Social App Capture-Recapture Method

Maogui Hu #  1 , Chengdong Xu #  1 , Jinfeng Wang  1
Affiliations

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Mainland China: Social App Capture-Recapture Method

Maogui Hu et al. JMIR Mhealth Uhealth. .

Abstract

Background: In China, the cases of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased more than tenfold since 2006. However, the MSM population size, geographical distribution, and migration patterns are largely unknown.

Objective: Our aim is to estimate the number, spatial distribution, and migration of MSM populations in mainland China using big data from social networking.

Methods: We collected 85 days of data on online users of a social networking MSM app in mainland China. Daily online MSM users and their migration across the country were investigated during a holiday period and a nonholiday period. Using the capture-mark-recapture model, we designed an experiment consisting of two independent samples to estimate the total provincial MSM population.

Results: The estimate of MSM in mainland China was 8,288,536 (95% CI 8,274,931-8,302,141), accounting for 1.732% (95% CI 1.729%-1.734%) of adult men aged 18 to 64 years. The average daily number of MSM social networking online across mainland China was 1,198,682 during the nonholiday period. The five provinces (including municipalities) with the highest average number of daily online MSM numbers were Guangdong (n=141,712), Jiangsu (n=90,710), Zhejiang (n=72,212), Shandong (n=68,065), and Beijing (n=66,057). The proportion of daily online MSM among adult men in different cities varied from 0.04% to 0.96%, with a mean of 0.20% (SD 0.14%). Three migrating centers-Guangdong, Beijing, and the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai-Zhejiang-Jiangsu)-accounted for 57.23% of MSM migrants in the county.

Conclusions: The percentage of MSM among adult men in mainland China is at the middle level compared with other Asia and Pacific countries. However, the number of MSM is very large, and the distribution is uneven. Both MSM distribution and migration are highly affected by socioeconomic status.

Keywords: HIV risk; MSM distribution; men who have sex with men; migration.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Provincial daily number and proportion of social networking men who have sex with men (MSM) from the Blued app. Numbers after the bars in (a) denote the percent of daily online MSM among the whole country; numbers after the bars in (b) denote the proportion of daily online MSM among local adult men aged 18 to 64 years; the two numbers after each bar are for nonholiday and holiday respectively.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Spatial distribution patterns of daily online MSM from the Blued app.
Figure 3
Figure 3
City-level distribution of daily online MSM from nonholiday social networking.
Figure 4
Figure 4
City-level distribution of the proportion of daily online MSM from nonholiday social networking. Cities in bold type are nonprovincial capitals.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Interprovincial MSM migration flows (n≥1500) from the social networking data.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Spatial distribution of estimated MSM number (a) and proportion (b) among adult men in mainland China.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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