The Confidence Database

doi:10.1038/s41562-019-0813-1

. 2020 Mar;4(3):317-325.

doi: 10.1038/s41562-019-0813-1. Epub 2020 Feb 3.

The Confidence Database

Dobromir Rahnev¹, Kobe Desender^{2

3}, Alan L F Lee⁴, William T Adler⁵, David Aguilar-Lleyda⁶, Başak Akdoğan⁷, Polina Arbuzova^{8

9

10}, Lauren Y Atlas^{11

12

13}, Fuat Balcı¹⁴, Ji Won Bang¹⁵, Indrit Bègue¹⁶, Damian P Birney¹⁷, Timothy F Brady¹⁸, Joshua Calder-Travis¹⁹, Andrey Chetverikov²⁰, Torin K Clark²¹, Karen Davranche²², Rachel N Denison²³, Troy C Dildine^{11

24}, Kit S Double²⁵, Yalçın A Duyan¹⁴, Nathan Faivre²⁶, Kaitlyn Fallow²⁷, Elisa Filevich^{8

9

10}, Thibault Gajdos²², Regan M Gallagher^{28

29

30}, Vincent de Gardelle³¹, Sabina Gherman^{32

33}, Nadia Haddara³⁴, Marine Hainguerlot³⁵, Tzu-Yu Hsu³⁶, Xiao Hu³⁷, Iñaki Iturrate³⁸, Matt Jaquiery¹⁹, Justin Kantner³⁹, Marcin Koculak⁴⁰, Mahiko Konishi⁴¹, Christina Koß^{8

10}, Peter D Kvam⁴², Sze Chai Kwok^{43

44

45}, Maël Lebreton⁴⁶, Karolina M Lempert⁴⁷, Chien Ming Lo^{36

48}, Liang Luo³⁷, Brian Maniscalco⁴⁹, Antonio Martin³⁶, Sébastien Massoni⁵⁰, Julian Matthews^{30

51}, Audrey Mazancieux²⁶, Daniel M Merfeld⁵², Denis O'Hora⁵³, Eleanor R Palser^{54

55

56}, Borysław Paulewicz⁵⁷, Michael Pereira⁵⁸, Caroline Peters^{8

9

10}, Marios G Philiastides³², Gerit Pfuhl⁵⁹, Fernanda Prieto⁶⁰, Manuel Rausch⁶¹, Samuel Recht⁶², Gabriel Reyes⁶⁰, Marion Rouault⁶³, Jérôme Sackur^{63

64}, Saeedeh Sadeghi⁶⁵, Jason Samaha⁶⁶, Tricia X F Seow⁶⁷, Medha Shekhar³⁴, Maxine T Sherman^{68

69}, Marta Siedlecka⁴⁰, Zuzanna Skóra⁴⁰, Chen Song⁷⁰, David Soto^{71

72}, Sai Sun⁷³, Jeroen J A van Boxtel^{30

74}, Shuo Wang⁷⁵, Christoph T Weidemann⁷⁶, Gabriel Weindel²², Michał Wierzchoń⁴⁰, Xinming Xu⁴³, Qun Ye⁴³, Jiwon Yeon³⁴, Futing Zou⁴³, Ariel Zylberberg⁷⁷

Affiliations

¹ School of Psychology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA. rahnev@psych.gatech.edu.
² Department of Neurophysiology and Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
³ Department of Experimental Psychology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
⁴ Department of Applied Psychology and Wofoo Joseph Lee Consulting and Counselling Psychology Research Centre, Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, Hong Kong.
⁵ Center for Neural Science, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
⁶ Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne, CNRS & Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France.
⁷ Department of Psychology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
⁸ Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience, Berlin, Germany.
⁹ Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
¹⁰ Institute of Psychology, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
¹¹ National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
¹² National Institute of Mental Health, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
¹³ National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
¹⁴ Department of Psychology, Koç University, Istanbul, Turkey.
¹⁵ Department of Ophthalmology, New York University (NYU) School of Medicine, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA.
¹⁶ Department of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University Hospitals of Geneva and University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
¹⁷ School of Psychology, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
¹⁸ Department of Psychology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
¹⁹ Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
²⁰ Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behavior, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
²¹ Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.
²² Aix Marseille University, CNRS, LPC, Marseille, France.
²³ Department of Psychology and Center for Neural Science, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
²⁴ Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden.
²⁵ Department of Education, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
²⁶ Laboratoire de Psychologie et Neurocognition, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France.
²⁷ Department of Psychology, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
²⁸ School of Psychology, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
²⁹ Department of Experimental & Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
³⁰ School of Psychological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
³¹ Paris School of Economics and CNRS, Paris, France.
³² Institute of Neuroscience and Psychology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
³³ Feinstein Institute for Medical Research, Manhasset, NY, USA.
³⁴ School of Psychology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
³⁵ Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
³⁶ Graduate Institute of Mind, Brain, and Consciousness, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
³⁷ Collaborative Innovation Center of Assessment toward Basic Education Quality, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
³⁸ National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
³⁹ Department of Psycholgoy, California State University, Northridge, CA, USA.
⁴⁰ Consciousness Lab, Institute of Psychology, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland.
⁴¹ Laboratoire de Sciences Cognitives et de Psycholinguistique, Department d'Etudes Cognitives, ENS, PSL University, EHESS, CNRS, Paris, France.
⁴² Department of Psychology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
⁴³ Shanghai Key Laboratory of Brain Functional Genomics, Key Laboratory of Brain Functional Genomics Ministry of Education, School of Psychology and Cognitive Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.
⁴⁴ Shanghai Key Laboratory of Magnetic Resonance, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.
⁴⁵ NYU-ECNU Institute of Brain and Cognitive Science, NYU Shanghai, Shanghai, China.
⁴⁶ Swiss Center for Affective Science and LaBNIC, Department of Basic Neuroscience, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
⁴⁷ Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
⁴⁸ Brain and Consciousness Research Centre, TMU Shuang-Ho Hospital, New Taipei City, Taiwan.
⁴⁹ Department of Bioengineering, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA.
⁵⁰ Université de Lorraine, Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, BETA, Nancy, France.
⁵¹ Philosophy Department, Monash University, Monash, Victoria, Australia.
⁵² Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA.
⁵³ School of Psychology, National University of Ireland Galway, Galway, Ireland.
⁵⁴ Department of Neurology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
⁵⁵ Psychology and Language Sciences, University College Londo, London, UK.
⁵⁶ Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, UK.
⁵⁷ SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Katowice Faculty of Psychology, Katowice, Poland.
⁵⁸ Laboratory of Cognitive Neuroscience, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
⁵⁹ Department of Psychology, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, Tromso, Norway.
⁶⁰ Faculty of Psychology, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile.
⁶¹ Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt, Eichstätt, Germany.
⁶² Laboratoire des Systèmes Perceptifs, Département d'Études Cognitives, École normale supérieure-PSL University, CNRS, Paris, France.
⁶³ Département d'Études Cognitives, École Normale Supérieure-PSL University, CNRS, EHESS, INSERM, Paris, France.
⁶⁴ École Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France.
⁶⁵ Department of Human Development, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
⁶⁶ Department of Psychology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
⁶⁷ School of Psychology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
⁶⁸ Sackler Centre for Consciousness Science, Brighton, UK.
⁶⁹ Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK.
⁷⁰ Cardiff University Brain Research Imaging Centre, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK.
⁷¹ Basque Center on Cognition, Brain and Language, San Sebastian, Spain.
⁷² Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain.
⁷³ Divisions of Biology and Biological Engineering and Computation and Neural Systems, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.
⁷⁴ Discipline of Psychology, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
⁷⁵ Department of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering and Rockefeller Neuroscience Institute, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, USA.
⁷⁶ Department of Psychology, Swansea University, Swansea, UK.
⁷⁷ Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA.

PMID: 32015487
PMCID: PMC7565481
DOI: 10.1038/s41562-019-0813-1

The Confidence Database

Dobromir Rahnev et al. Nat Hum Behav. 2020 Mar.

. 2020 Mar;4(3):317-325.

doi: 10.1038/s41562-019-0813-1. Epub 2020 Feb 3.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ School of Psychology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA. rahnev@psych.gatech.edu.
² Department of Neurophysiology and Pathophysiology, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
³ Department of Experimental Psychology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
⁴ Department of Applied Psychology and Wofoo Joseph Lee Consulting and Counselling Psychology Research Centre, Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, Hong Kong.
⁵ Center for Neural Science, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
⁶ Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne, CNRS & Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France.
⁷ Department of Psychology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
⁸ Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience, Berlin, Germany.
⁹ Berlin School of Mind and Brain, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
¹⁰ Institute of Psychology, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
¹¹ National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
¹² National Institute of Mental Health, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
¹³ National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institutes of Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
¹⁴ Department of Psychology, Koç University, Istanbul, Turkey.
¹⁵ Department of Ophthalmology, New York University (NYU) School of Medicine, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA.
¹⁶ Department of Psychiatry and Mental Health, University Hospitals of Geneva and University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
¹⁷ School of Psychology, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
¹⁸ Department of Psychology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
¹⁹ Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
²⁰ Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behavior, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
²¹ Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.
²² Aix Marseille University, CNRS, LPC, Marseille, France.
²³ Department of Psychology and Center for Neural Science, New York University, New York, NY, USA.
²⁴ Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden.
²⁵ Department of Education, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
²⁶ Laboratoire de Psychologie et Neurocognition, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France.
²⁷ Department of Psychology, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
²⁸ School of Psychology, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
²⁹ Department of Experimental & Applied Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
³⁰ School of Psychological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
³¹ Paris School of Economics and CNRS, Paris, France.
³² Institute of Neuroscience and Psychology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
³³ Feinstein Institute for Medical Research, Manhasset, NY, USA.
³⁴ School of Psychology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
³⁵ Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
³⁶ Graduate Institute of Mind, Brain, and Consciousness, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
³⁷ Collaborative Innovation Center of Assessment toward Basic Education Quality, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
³⁸ National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
³⁹ Department of Psycholgoy, California State University, Northridge, CA, USA.
⁴⁰ Consciousness Lab, Institute of Psychology, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland.
⁴¹ Laboratoire de Sciences Cognitives et de Psycholinguistique, Department d'Etudes Cognitives, ENS, PSL University, EHESS, CNRS, Paris, France.
⁴² Department of Psychology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
⁴³ Shanghai Key Laboratory of Brain Functional Genomics, Key Laboratory of Brain Functional Genomics Ministry of Education, School of Psychology and Cognitive Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.
⁴⁴ Shanghai Key Laboratory of Magnetic Resonance, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.
⁴⁵ NYU-ECNU Institute of Brain and Cognitive Science, NYU Shanghai, Shanghai, China.
⁴⁶ Swiss Center for Affective Science and LaBNIC, Department of Basic Neuroscience, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
⁴⁷ Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
⁴⁸ Brain and Consciousness Research Centre, TMU Shuang-Ho Hospital, New Taipei City, Taiwan.
⁴⁹ Department of Bioengineering, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA.
⁵⁰ Université de Lorraine, Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, BETA, Nancy, France.
⁵¹ Philosophy Department, Monash University, Monash, Victoria, Australia.
⁵² Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA.
⁵³ School of Psychology, National University of Ireland Galway, Galway, Ireland.
⁵⁴ Department of Neurology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
⁵⁵ Psychology and Language Sciences, University College Londo, London, UK.
⁵⁶ Institute of Neurology, University College London, London, UK.
⁵⁷ SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Katowice Faculty of Psychology, Katowice, Poland.
⁵⁸ Laboratory of Cognitive Neuroscience, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
⁵⁹ Department of Psychology, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, Tromso, Norway.
⁶⁰ Faculty of Psychology, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile.
⁶¹ Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt, Eichstätt, Germany.
⁶² Laboratoire des Systèmes Perceptifs, Département d'Études Cognitives, École normale supérieure-PSL University, CNRS, Paris, France.
⁶³ Département d'Études Cognitives, École Normale Supérieure-PSL University, CNRS, EHESS, INSERM, Paris, France.
⁶⁴ École Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France.
⁶⁵ Department of Human Development, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
⁶⁶ Department of Psychology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
⁶⁷ School of Psychology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
⁶⁸ Sackler Centre for Consciousness Science, Brighton, UK.
⁶⁹ Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK.
⁷⁰ Cardiff University Brain Research Imaging Centre, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK.
⁷¹ Basque Center on Cognition, Brain and Language, San Sebastian, Spain.
⁷² Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain.
⁷³ Divisions of Biology and Biological Engineering and Computation and Neural Systems, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.
⁷⁴ Discipline of Psychology, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
⁷⁵ Department of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering and Rockefeller Neuroscience Institute, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, USA.
⁷⁶ Department of Psychology, Swansea University, Swansea, UK.
⁷⁷ Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA.

PMID: 32015487
PMCID: PMC7565481
DOI: 10.1038/s41562-019-0813-1

Abstract

Understanding how people rate their confidence is critical for the characterization of a wide range of perceptual, memory, motor and cognitive processes. To enable the continued exploration of these processes, we created a large database of confidence studies spanning a broad set of paradigms, participant populations and fields of study. The data from each study are structured in a common, easy-to-use format that can be easily imported and analysed using multiple software packages. Each dataset is accompanied by an explanation regarding the nature of the collected data. At the time of publication, the Confidence Database (which is available at https://osf.io/s46pr/) contained 145 datasets with data from more than 8,700 participants and almost 4 million trials. The database will remain open for new submissions indefinitely and is expected to continue to grow. Here we show the usefulness of this large collection of datasets in four different analyses that provide precise estimations of several foundational confidence-related effects.

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Figures

**Figure 1.. Datasets currently in the Confidence Database.**
Pie charts showing the number of datasets split by category, publication year, number of participants, number of trials per participant, type of judgment, and rating scale. The label “Multiple” in the first pie chart indicates that the same participants completed tasks from more than one category. The maximum number of participants was 589 and the maximum trials per participant was 4,320 (“variable” indicates that different participants completed different number of trials).

**Figure 2.. Correlating confidence with choice and confidence RT.**
(A) We found a medium-to-large negative correlation (r = −.24, p < 2.2e-16, n = 4,089) between confidence and choice RT, as well as a small negative correlation (r = −.07, p < 2.2e-16, n = 4,089) between confidence and confidence RT. Box shows the median and the interquartile (25-75%) range, whereas the whiskers show the 2-98% range. (B) The strength of the two correlations in panel A were themselves correlated across subjects (r = .23, p < 2.2e-16, n = 4,089).

**Figure 3.. Serial dependence in confidence RT.**
We observed a large lag-1 autocorrelation (b = 1.346, t(1299601) = 153.6, p < 2.2e-16, n = 4,474). The autocorrelation decreased for higher lags but remained significant up to lag-7 (all p’s < 2.2e-16, n = 4,474). Error bars indicate SEM. Individual datapoints are not shown because the plots are based on the results of a mixed model analysis.

**Figure 4.. The prevalence of estimates of negative metacognitive sensitivity.**
(A) Individual beta values and beta values density plot for the observed relationship between confidence and accuracy. Box shows the median and the interquartile (25-75%) range, whereas the whiskers show the 2-98% range. (B-F) Scatter plots, including lines of best fit, for the relationships between the beta value for confidence-accuracy relationship and the number of trials (B), average accuracy (C), median choice RT (D), median confidence RT (E), and the proportion of trials where the most common confidence judgment was given (F).

**Figure 5.. Confidence scale use for perception and memory studies.**
The percent of 2-point, 3-point, 4-point, 5-point, 6-point, 7-to-11-point, and continuous confidence scales were plotted separately for perception and memory datasets. We combined the 7- to 11-point scales because of the low number of datasets with such scales. The two domains differed in how often they employed 3-point and continuous scales.

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References

1. Mamassian P Visual Confidence. Annu. Rev. Vis. Sci 2, annurev-vision-111815–114630 (2016). - PubMed
1. Weidemann CT & Kahana MJ Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times. R. Soc. Open Sci 3, 150670 (2016). - PMC - PubMed
1. Peirce CS & Jastrow J On Small Differences in Sensation. Mem. Natl. Acad. Sci 3, 75–83 (1884).
1. Ratcliff R, Van Zandt T & McKoon G Process dissociation, single-process theories, and recognition memory. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen 124, 352–74 (1995). - PubMed
1. Azzopardi P & Cowey A Is blindsight like normal, near-threshold vision? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci 94, 14190–14194 (1997). - PMC - PubMed

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[1] Mamassian P Visual Confidence. Annu. Rev. Vis. Sci 2, annurev-vision-111815–114630 (2016). - PubMed

[2] Mamassian P Visual Confidence. Annu. Rev. Vis. Sci 2, annurev-vision-111815–114630 (2016). - PubMed

[3] Weidemann CT & Kahana MJ Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times. R. Soc. Open Sci 3, 150670 (2016). - PMC - PubMed

[4] Weidemann CT & Kahana MJ Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times. R. Soc. Open Sci 3, 150670 (2016). - PMC - PubMed

[5] Peirce CS & Jastrow J On Small Differences in Sensation. Mem. Natl. Acad. Sci 3, 75–83 (1884).

[6] Peirce CS & Jastrow J On Small Differences in Sensation. Mem. Natl. Acad. Sci 3, 75–83 (1884).

[7] Ratcliff R, Van Zandt T & McKoon G Process dissociation, single-process theories, and recognition memory. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen 124, 352–74 (1995). - PubMed

[8] Ratcliff R, Van Zandt T & McKoon G Process dissociation, single-process theories, and recognition memory. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen 124, 352–74 (1995). - PubMed

[9] Azzopardi P & Cowey A Is blindsight like normal, near-threshold vision? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci 94, 14190–14194 (1997). - PMC - PubMed

[10] Azzopardi P & Cowey A Is blindsight like normal, near-threshold vision? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci 94, 14190–14194 (1997). - PMC - PubMed

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The Confidence Database

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The Confidence Database

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