Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Sodium as a Predictor of Surgical Risk in Cirrhotic Patients With Ascites

Abstract

Background: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Sodium (MELD-Na) incorporates hyponatremia into the MELD score and has been shown to correlate with surgical outcomes. The pathophysiology of hyponatremia parallels that of ascites, which purports greater surgical risk. This study investigates whether MELD-Na accurately predicts morbidity and mortality in patients with ascites undergoing general surgery procedures.

Materials and methods: We used the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2014) to examine the adjusted risk of morbidity and mortality of cirrhotic patients with and without ascites undergoing inguinal or ventral hernia repair, cholecystectomy, and lysis of adhesions for bowel obstruction. Patients were stratified by the MELD-Na score and ascites. Outcomes were compared between patients with and without ascites for each stratum using low MELD-Na and no ascites group as a reference.

Results: A total of 30,391 patients were analyzed. Within each MELD-Na stratum, patients with ascites had an increased risk of complications compared with the reference group (low MELD-Na and no ascites): low MELD-Na with ascites odds ratio (OR) 4.33 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.96-9.59), moderate MELD-Na no ascites OR 1.70 (95% CI 1.52-1.9), moderate MELD-Na with ascites OR 3.69 (95% CI 2.49-5.46), high MELD-Na no ascites OR 3.51 (95% CI 3.07-4.01), and high MELD-Na ascites OR 7.18 (95% CI 5.33-9.67). Similarly, mortality risk was increased in patients with ascites compared with the reference: moderate MELD-Na no ascites OR 3.55 (95% CI 2.22-5.67), moderate MELD-Na ascites OR 13.80 (95% CI 5.65-33.71), high MELD-Na no ascites OR 8.34 (95% CI 5.15-13.51), and high MELD-Na ascites OR 43.97 (95% CI 23.76-81.39).

Conclusions: MELD-Na underestimates morbidity and mortality risk for general surgery patients with ascites.

Keywords: Ascites; Cirrhosis; MELD-Na; Surgical risk.