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. 2020 Jan;25(4):2000057.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057.

Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020

Giulia Pullano  1 , Francesco Pinotti  1 , Eugenio Valdano  2 , Pierre-Yves Boëlle  1 , Chiara Poletto  1 , Vittoria Colizza  1
Affiliations

Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020

Giulia Pullano et al. Euro Surveill. 2020 Jan.

Abstract

As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV; Europe; importation risk; travel ban.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Map of Chinese provinces colour coded according to the number of cases of 2019-nCoV [4] as at 27 January 2020
Figure 2
Figure 2
(A) Country-specific risk of importation assuming one case imported to Europe from Wuhan before the travel ban, and (B) relative risk by airporta, January 2020
Figure 3
Figure 3
Risk, as a function of the cumulative number of exported cases from China, of importing at least one case to Europe except France and Germany, given three imported cases reported in France and one case confirmed in Germany, January 2020
Figure 4
Figure 4
(A) Country-specific risk of importation assuming one case imported to Europe from the multi-source seeding of Figure 1 and (B) relative risk by airporta, January 2020
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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