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. 2020 Jan;25(4):2000058.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058.

Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020

Julien Riou  1 , Christian L Althaus  1
Affiliations

Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020

Julien Riou et al. Euro Surveill. 2020 Jan.

Erratum in

  • Author's correction for Euro Surveill. 2020;25(4).
    Eurosurveillance editorial team1. Eurosurveillance editorial team1. Euro Surveill. 2020 Feb;25(7):20200220c. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.7.20200220c. Euro Surveill. 2020. PMID: 32098643 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

Abstract

Since December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4-3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV; Wuhan; coronavirus; emerging infectious disease; mathematical modelling.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Values of R0 and k most compatible with the estimated size of the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic in China, on 18 January 2020
Figure 2
Figure 2
Illustration of the simulation strategy, 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, China, 2019–2020
Figure 3
Figure 3
Proportion of simulated epidemics that lead to a cumulative incidence between 1,000 and 9,700 of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, China, on 18 January 2020
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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