The first two cases of 2019-nCoV in Italy: Where they come from?

Abstract

A novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, has been identified as the causal pathogen of an ongoing epidemic, with the first cases reported in Wuhan, China, last December 2019, and has since spread to other countries worldwide, included Europe and very recently Italy. In this short report, phylogenetic reconstruction was used to better understand the transmission dynamics of the virus from its first introduction in China focusing on the more recent evidence of infection in a couple of Chinese tourists arrived in Italy on 23rd January 2020 and labeled as Coronavirus Italian cases. A maximum clade credibility tree has been built using a dataset of 54 genome sequences of 2019-nCoV plus two closely related bat strains (SARS-like CoV) available in GenBank. Bayesian time-scaled phylogenetic analysis was implemented in BEAST 1.10.4. The Bayesian phylogenetic reconstruction showed that 2019-2020 nCoV firstly introduced in Wuhan on 25 November 2019, started epidemic transmission reaching many countries worldwide, including Europe and Italy where the two strains isolated dated back 19 January 2020, the same that the Chinese tourists arrived in Italy. Strains isolated outside China were intermixed with strains isolated in China as evidence of likely imported cases in Rome, Italy, and Europe, as well. In conclusion, this report suggests that further spread of 2019-nCoV epidemic was supported by human mobility and that quarantine of suspected or diagnosed cases is useful to prevent further transmission. Viral genome phylogenetic analysis represents a useful tool for the evaluation of transmission dynamics and preventive action.

Keywords: engineering and technology; epidemiology; infection; macromolecular design.

Figure 1

Maximum clade credibility phylogeny, estimated from complete and near‐complete nCoV virus genomes with a molecular clock phylogenetic approach. Expansion of the clade containing the novel genomes sequences from the nCoV 2019‐2020 epidemic. Clade posterior probabilities are shown at well‐supported nodes. Colors represent different locations