Rate and Determinants of Recurrence at 1 Year and 5 Years After Stroke in a Low-Income Population in Rural China

Abstract

Recurrent stroke is becoming an increasingly important public health issue owing to the increased risk of disability and death. However, population-based studies investigating the rate of recurrent stroke in China are rare. We explored the rate and determinants of recurrent stroke within 1 and 5 years after the initial stroke in a rural population in China. Data for stroke events were obtained from the Tianjin Brain Study, conducted between 1992 and 2016. The age-standardized rates of recurrent stroke within the first year and the first 5 years after the initial stroke were calculated for this period. Determinants of recurrent stroke were assessed using Cox regression analyses. The overall age-standardized rate of recurrent stroke within 1 year was 5.7% (men, 6.9%; women, 4.6%); within 5 years, the overall recurrent stroke rate was 22.5% (men, 24.0%; women, 20.2%). The recurrence rate increased with advancing age and decreased with increased educational attainment. Age ≥65 years and a history of alcohol consumption were independent risk factors for recurrent stroke within 1 year after the incident stroke, after adjusting for age, sex, education, hypertension, diabetes, smoking, and alcohol consumption. However, the risk of recurrent stroke within 5 years after the incident stroke was positively associated with male sex, age ≥65 years, a lower level of education, known diabetes, and alcohol consumption, after adjusting for the previously indicated covariates. These findings suggest a crucial need to address risk factor management among stroke patients to reduce the burden of stroke, especially among low-income populations. Furthermore, a multicenter, large sample, nationwide study is urgently needed.

Keywords: epidemiology; incidence; predictors; recurrence; stroke.

Figure 1

Association between the rate of recurrent stroke and education attainment. There was no significant association between the rate of recurrent stroke within 1 year and education attainment (log rank = 1.103; P = 0.576; A). However, a negative association is shown between the rate of recurrent stroke within 5 years and education attainment (log rank = 8.462; P = 0.015; B).