[Predictions of the incidence of cancer in Japan in the year 2000]

Abstract

The incidence of cancer in Japan in the year 2000 was predicted according to sex, age-group, and primary site, using the annual incidence data in the Osaka Cancer Registry for 1966-83 and the annual standardized mortality ratio of Osaka residents to all residents of Japan in 1966-83. (1) The incidence of cancer in Japan in the year 2000 was predicted to reach 479,500 cases (365.5 per 100,000 population), or a 1.66-fold increase over that of 1985. Forty-nine percent of these cases would be aged 70 years or older. (2) As for the 5 leading cancer sites in the year 2000, out of this total of 479,500 cancer cases, 80,300 were estimated to occur in the lung, 77,200 in the stomach, 45,200 in the colon, 35,500 in the liver and 28,000 in the breast.