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. 2020 Sep;35(9):1628-1635.
doi: 10.1111/jgh.15009. Epub 2020 Feb 26.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019-2030

Leon A Adams  1 , Stuart K Roberts  2 , Simone I Strasser  3 , Suzanne E Mahady  4   5 , Elizabeth Powell  6 , Chris Estes  7 , Homie Razavi  7 , Jacob George  8
Affiliations

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019-2030

Leon A Adams et al. J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2020 Sep.

Abstract

Background and aim: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.

Methods: A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.

Results: Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000-6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000-7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100-3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100-6100) deaths in 2030.

Conclusions: Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.

Keywords: Fatty liver; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Liver cirrhosis; Liver neoplasms; Metabolic syndrome; Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)‐related disease burden with 95% uncertainty interval—Australia, 2015–2030.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age distribution of prevalent nonalcoholic liver disease (NAFLD) cases—Australia, 2019 and 2030. formula image, male NAFLD; formula image, male non‐NAFLD; formula image, female NAFLD; formula image, female non‐NAFLD.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Reported range and model‐estimated incident nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)‐related primary liver cancer cases—Australia, 2005–2015. formula image, reported range of incident NAFLD‐related primary liver cancer cases; formula image, model incident primary liver cancer cases.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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