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. 2020 Apr 3;378(2168):20190210.
doi: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0210. Epub 2020 Feb 17.

Evaluating the operational resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises to flooding using a computational modelling and simulation approach: a case study of the 2007 flood in Tewkesbury

Graham Coates  1 , Meshal Alharbi  2 , Chunhui Li  2 , Sangaralingam Ahilan  3 , Nigel Wright  4
Affiliations

Evaluating the operational resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises to flooding using a computational modelling and simulation approach: a case study of the 2007 flood in Tewkesbury

Graham Coates et al. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. .

Abstract

The resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to disruptive events is significant as this highly prevalent category of business forms the economic backbone in developed countries. This article provides an overview of the application of a computational modelling and simulation approach to evaluate SMEs' operational resilience to flooding based on combinations of structural and procedural mitigation measures that may be implemented to improve their premises' resistance to flooding and safeguard their business continuity. The approach integrates flood modelling and simulation with agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) within a modelled geographical environment. SMEs are modelled as agents based on findings of semi-structured interviews with SMEs that have experienced flooding or are at risk of flooding. In this paper, the ABMS has been applied to a new case study of the major flood event of 2007 in Tewkesbury. Furthermore, to enable an evaluation of the operational resilience of manufacturing SMEs in terms of the relative effectiveness of flood mitigation measures, a new coefficient based on production loss is introduced. Results indicate structural mitigation measures are more effective than procedural measures. While this result is intuitive, the approach provides a means of evaluating the relative effectiveness of combinations of mitigation measures that SMEs may implement to enhance their operational resilience to flooding. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.

Keywords: agent-based modelling; flood modelling; resilience; small and medium-sized enterprises.

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Conflict of interest statement

We declare we have no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Computational modelling and simulation approach. (Online version in colour.)
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Modelled geographical environment with SMEs' premises indicated using green circles. (Online version in colour.)
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
(a–d) Flood modelling and simulation in Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire. (Online version in colour.)
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Profile of a manufacturing SME's production capacity pre- during and post-flood. (Online version in colour.)
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Average production capacity of 16 flood-affected manufacturing SMEs. (Online version in colour.)
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
PCloss (units) and ORc for each simulation experiment. (Online version in colour.)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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  • Editorial: great floods have flown from simple sources.
    Fenner R. Fenner R. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2020 Apr 3;378(2168):20190199. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0199. Epub 2020 Feb 17. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2020. PMID: 32063169 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

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