The basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) estimation based on exponential growth in the early outbreak in China from 2019 to 2020: A reply to Dhungana

Shi Zhao¹, Qianying Lin², Jinjun Ran³, Salihu S Musa⁴, Guangpu Yang⁵, Weiming Wang⁶, Yijun Lou⁷, Daozhou Gao⁸, Lin Yang⁹, Daihai He¹⁰, Maggie H Wang¹¹

Affiliations

¹ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com.
² Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. Electronic address: qianying.lin@connect.polyu.hk.
³ School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: jimran@connect.hku.hk.
⁴ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk.
⁵ Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: kennethgpy@link.cuhk.edu.hk.
⁶ School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China. Electronic address: weimingwang2003@163.com.
⁷ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk.
⁸ Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China. Electronic address: dzgao@shnu.edu.cn.
⁹ School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: l.yang@polyu.edu.hk.
¹⁰ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk.
¹¹ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk.

PMID: 32088339
PMCID: PMC7130104
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.025

Comment

The basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) estimation based on exponential growth in the early outbreak in China from 2019 to 2020: A reply to Dhungana

Shi Zhao et al. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 May.

. 2020 May:94:148-150.

doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.025. Epub 2020 Feb 20.

Authors

Shi Zhao¹, Qianying Lin², Jinjun Ran³, Salihu S Musa⁴, Guangpu Yang⁵, Weiming Wang⁶, Yijun Lou⁷, Daozhou Gao⁸, Lin Yang⁹, Daihai He¹⁰, Maggie H Wang¹¹

Affiliations

¹ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: zhaoshi.cmsa@gmail.com.
² Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. Electronic address: qianying.lin@connect.polyu.hk.
³ School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: jimran@connect.hku.hk.
⁴ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk.
⁵ Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: kennethgpy@link.cuhk.edu.hk.
⁶ School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China. Electronic address: weimingwang2003@163.com.
⁷ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk.
⁸ Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China. Electronic address: dzgao@shnu.edu.cn.
⁹ School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: l.yang@polyu.edu.hk.
¹⁰ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk.
¹¹ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk.

PMID: 32088339
PMCID: PMC7130104
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.025

No abstract available

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Figures

**Figure 1**
The estimates of the basic reproduction number, R₀, with varying reporting rates, mean and SD of serial interval (SI). The mean of SI, from top to bottom vertically, varies at 6, 7, 8 and 9 days. The SD of SI, from left to right horizontally, varies at 2, 3, 4 and 5 days. The light-yellow area highlights the R₀ ranging from 2 to 4 referring to the estimates in (Li et al., 2020, Imai et al., 2020, Riou and Althaus, 2020, Zhao et al., 2020b, Wu et al., 2020). The blue bold curve is the mean estimate, and the blue dashed curves are the 95% confidence interval (95%CI). recently published in the International Journal o

See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment on

Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.
Zhao S, Lin Q, Ran J, Musa SS, Yang G, Wang W, Lou Y, Gao D, Yang L, He D, Wang MH. Zhao S, et al. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Mar;92:214-217. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.050. Epub 2020 Jan 30. Int J Infect Dis. 2020. PMID: 32007643 Free PMC article.

References

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1. Imai N., Dorigatti I., Cori A., Riley S., Ferguson N.M. Preprint published by the Imperial College London; 2020. Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China.https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--...
1. Li Q., Guan X., Wu P., Wang X., Zhou L., Tong Y. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020 - PMC - PubMed
1. Nishiura H., Chowell G. Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014. Eurosurveillance. 2014;19(36):20894. - PubMed
1. Riou J., Althaus C.L. Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020. Eurosurveillance. 2020;25(4) - PMC - PubMed

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The basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) estimation based on exponential growth in the early outbreak in China from 2019 to 2020: A reply to Dhungana

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The basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) estimation based on exponential growth in the early outbreak in China from 2019 to 2020: A reply to Dhungana

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