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Comment
. 2020 May;80(5):578-606.
doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.02.019. Epub 2020 Feb 26.

Simulating and forecasting the cumulative confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in China by Boltzmann function-based regression analyses

Xinmiao Fu  1 , Qi Ying  2 , Tieyong Zeng  3 , Tao Long  4 , Yan Wang  5
Affiliations
Comment

Simulating and forecasting the cumulative confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in China by Boltzmann function-based regression analyses

Xinmiao Fu et al. J Infect. 2020 May.

Abstract

  1. •

    Cumulative confirmed cases in China were well fitted with Boltzmann function.

  2. •

    Potential total numbers of confirmed cases in different regions were estimated.

  3. •

    Key dates indicating minimal daily number of new confirmed cases were estimated.

  4. •

    Cumulative confirmed cases of 2003 SARS-CoV were well fitted to Boltzmann function.

  5. •

    The Boltzmann function was, for the first time, applied to epidemic analysis.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV; Boltzmann function; Coronavirus; Epidemic; Modeling studies; SARS; SARS-CoV-2.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Competing Interest None.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Fitting the cumulative number of confirmed cases from different geographic regions of China to the Boltzmann function. (A) Plots of the cumulative number of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 as of Feb 14, 2020, in mainland China (■), in Hubei Province (□), in Wuhan City (▲) and in other provinces (△), with the simulation results being plotted as color lines. Note: the reported cumulative number of confirmed cases of Hubei Province and Wuhan City were re-adjusted for data fitting due to the suddenly added cases by clinical features (for detail, refer to Table S1). (B) Plots of the cumulative number of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 as of Feb 14, 2020, in the most affected provinces (Guangdong, ■; Zhejiang, □; Henan, ▲; Hunan, △), with the simulation results being plotted as color lines. (C, D) Data of mainland China (panel C) and Hubei Province (panel D) were fitted to the Boltzmann function assuming that the relative uncertainty of the data follows a single-sided normal distribution with a mean of 1.0 and a standard deviation of 10%. Original data are shown as circles; simulated results are presented as colored lines as indicated. Inserts show key statistics. The key date is defined as the date when the number of daily new confirmed cases is less than 0.1% of the potential total number. The low and high key dates were determined by the simulated curve of confidence interval (CI) at 2.5% and 97.5%, respectively. (E, F) The cumulative number of confirmed cases of 2003 SARS in China (panel E) and worldwide (panel F) are shown as black squares, and the simulation results are plotted as red short lines and parameters of each established function are shown in inserts. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
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Comment on

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