Global, regional and national burden of pancreatic cancer, 1990 to 2017: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract

Background: The global burden of pancreatic cancer (PCa) continues to grow. Detailed data on PCa epidemiology are essential for policy-making and appropriate healthcare resource allocation.

Methods: Estimates of incidence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of PCa from 1990 to 2017 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Decomposition analysis was conducted to detect the contributing factors related to PCa incidence variation. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the PCa epidemiology trends over a specified interval.

Results: Globally, the incidence of PCa cases increased by 129.1% to 447 664 664 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 438 597-456 295), death increased by 125.2% to 441 082 082 (95% UI 448 960-432 833), and DALYs increased by 107.3% to 9 080 004 (95% UI 8 894 128-9 256 346) between 1990 and 2017. Relatively higher sociodemographic index (SDI) regions were observed with greater incidences, more deaths and a greater number of DALYs of PCa, but relatively lower SDI regions experienced a sharply increasing trend in these measures. Decomposition analysis indicated that the global increase in PCa incidence was driven by the aging population from 2007 to 2017, especially in higher SDI regions. In addition, a significant negative correlation was found between EAPC and ASIR (in 1990) (r = -0.56, P < 0.001).

Conclusions: PCa remains a major public health burden globally. The unfavorable trend in PCa suggesting that further study for prevention should be conducted to forestall the increase in pancreatic cancer.

Keywords: Global burden of disease; Incidence; Mortality; Pancreatic cancer; Prevention.