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. 2020 Feb 24:6:10.
doi: 10.1038/s41421-020-0148-0. eCollection 2020.

Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China

Huwen Wang #  1 , Zezhou Wang #  2   3 , Yinqiao Dong #  4 , Ruijie Chang #  1 , Chen Xu #  1 , Xiaoyue Yu #  1 , Shuxian Zhang #  1 , Lhakpa Tsamlag #  1 , Meili Shang  5 , Jinyan Huang  6 , Ying Wang  1 , Gang Xu  1 , Tian Shen  1 , Xinxin Zhang  7 , Yong Cai  1
Affiliations

Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China

Huwen Wang et al. Cell Discov. .

Abstract

An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated R0 of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of Rt . In the first assumption, Rt was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with Rt = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, Rt was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (Rt = 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (Rt = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077-84,520 or 55,869-81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce Rt to an ideal level and control the infection.

Keywords: Autoimmunity; Immunology.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interestThe authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (December 2019–February 2020, R0 = 1.9, 2.6, and 3.1).
In all, 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989 represent the estimated number of COVID-19 cases by the end of February 2020 in Wuhan, China, with R0 = 1.9, 2.6, and 3.1, respectively.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (1 December 2019–30 April 2020, E = 20I).
In all, 55,869 represents the estimated peak number of COVID-19 cases on 19 February 2020 in Wuhan, China with R0 = 0.5; 58,077 represents the estimated peak number of COVID-19 cases on 23 February 2020 in Wuhan, China with R0 = 0.9; E: number of exposed cases; I: number of infectious cases; E was assumed to be 20 times of I at baseline.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China (1 December 2019–30 April 2020, E = 30I).
In all, 81,393 represents the estimated peak number of COVID-19 cases on 19 February 2020 in Wuhan, China with R0 = 0.5; 84,520 represents the estimated peak number of COVID-19 cases on 23 February 2020 in Wuhan, China with R0 = 0.9; E: number of exposed cases; I: number of infectious cases; E was assumed to be 30 times of I at baseline.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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