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. 2020 Apr;51(8):801-811.
doi: 10.1111/apt.15673. Epub 2020 Mar 4.

Modelling NAFLD disease burden in four Asian regions-2019-2030

Chris Estes  1 , Henry L Y Chan  2 , Rong N Chien  3 , Wan-Long Chuang  4 , James Fung  2 , George Boon-Bee Goh  5 , Tsung H Hu  4 , Jee-Fu Huang  4 , Byoung K Jang  6 , Dae W Jun  7 , Jia H Kao  8 , Jin-Woo Lee  9 , Han-Chieh Lin  8 , Kathryn Razavi-Shearer  1 , Wai-Kay Seto  2 , Grace L-H Wong  2 , Vincent W-S Wong  2 , Homie Razavi  1
Affiliations

Modelling NAFLD disease burden in four Asian regions-2019-2030

Chris Estes et al. Aliment Pharmacol Ther. 2020 Apr.

Abstract

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for an increasing proportion of liver disease in the Asia-Pacific region. Many areas in the region are experiencing epidemics of metabolic syndrome among rapidly ageing populations.

Aims: To estimate using modelling the growth in NAFLD populations, including cases with significant fibrosis that are most likely to experience advanced liver disease and related mortality.

Methods: A disease progression model was used to summarise and project fibrosis progression among the NAFLD populations of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. For each area, changes in the adult prevalence of obesity was used to extrapolate long-term trends in NAFLD incidence.

Results: In the areas studied, prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 6%-20% during 2019-2030, while prevalent NASH cases increase 20%-35%. Incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma are projected to increase by 65%-85%, while incident decompensated cirrhosis cases increase 65%-100% by 2030. Likewise, NAFLD-related mortality is projected to increase between 65% and 100% from 2019 to 2030. NAFLD disease burden is expected to increase alongside rising trends in metabolic syndrome and obesity among populations in the region. This leads to more cases of advanced liver disease and associated mortality.

Conclusions: Preventing the growth of diabetic and obese populations will be a key factor in reducing ongoing increases in NAFLD-related disease burden in the Asia-Pacific region.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
NAFLD‐related prevalent cases—Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, 2019‐2030. NAFLD, non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age distribution of prevalent NAFLD cases—Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, 2019‐2030. NAFLD, non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease
Figure 3
Figure 3
NAFLD‐related incident cases with 95% uncertainty interval—Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, 2015‐2030. NAFLD, non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

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