Lactate indices as predictors of in-hospital mortality or 90-day survival after admission to an intensive care unit in unselected critically ill patients

Abstract

Background: We performed an exclusive study to investigate the associations between a total of 23 lactate-related indices during the first 24h in an intensive care unit (ICU) and in-hospital mortality.

Methods: Nine static and 14 dynamic lactate indices, including changes in lactate concentrations (Δ Lac) and slope (linear regression coefficient), were calculated from individual critically ill patient data extracted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III database.

Results: Data from a total of 781 ICU patients were extracted, consisted of 523 survivors and 258 non-survivors. The in-hospital mortality rate for this cohort was 33.0%. A multivariate logistic regression model identified maximal lactate concentration at 24h after ICU admission (max lactate at T24) as a significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio = 1.431, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.278-1.604, p<0.001) after adjusting for predefined confounders (age, gender, sepsis, Elixhauser comorbidity score, mechanical ventilation, renal replacement therapy, vasopressors, ICU severity scores). Area under curve (AUC) for max lactate at T24 was larger (AUC = 0.776, 95% CI = 0.740-0.812) than other indices (p<0.001), comparable to an APACHE III score of 0.771. When combining max lactate at T24 with APACHE III, the AUC was increased to 0.815 (95% CI:0.783-0.847). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for the cut-off value of 3.05 mmol/L were 64.3%, 77.4%, 58.5%, and 81.5%, respectively. Kaplan-Myer survival curves of the max lactate at T24 for 90-day survival after admission to ICU demonstrated a significant difference according to the cut-off value (p<0.001).

Conclusions: These data indicate that the maximal arterial lactate concentration at T24 is a robust predictor of in-hospital mortality as well as 90-day survival in unselected ICU patients with predictive ability as comparable with APACHE III score.

Fig 1. A flowchart of patient inclusion and exclusion.

Fig 2. Dot plot for distribution of max lactate at 24h, APACHE III score, and age between survivors (n = 523) and non-survivors (n = 258).

The dotted lines indicate cut-off values.

Fig 3. Kaplan-Meier survival curve with risk tables and 95% confidence intervals of Max lactate at T24, APCHE III score, and age for 90-day survival after ICU admission.