Machine Learning techniques in breast cancer prognosis prediction: A primary evaluation

Abstract

More than 750 000 women in Italy are surviving a diagnosis of breast cancer. A large body of literature tells us which characteristics impact the most on their prognosis. However, the prediction of each disease course and then the establishment of a therapeutic plan and follow-up tailored to the patient is still very complicated. In order to address this issue, a multidisciplinary approach has become widely accepted, while the Multigene Signature Panels and the Nottingham Prognostic Index are still discussed options. The current technological resources permit to gather many data for each patient. Machine Learning (ML) allows us to draw on these data, to discover their mutual relations and to esteem the prognosis for the new instances. This study provides a primary evaluation of the application of ML to predict breast cancer prognosis. We analyzed 1021 patients who underwent surgery for breast cancer in our Institute and we included 610 of them. Three outcomes were chosen: cancer recurrence (both loco-regional and systemic) and death from the disease within 32 months. We developed two types of ML models for every outcome (Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine). Each ML algorithm was tested in accuracy (=95.29%-96.86%), sensitivity (=0.35-0.64), specificity (=0.97-0.99), and AUC (=0.804-0.916). These models might become an additional resource to evaluate the prognosis of breast cancer patients in our daily clinical practice. Before that, we should increase their sensitivity, according to literature, by considering a wider population sample with a longer period of follow-up. However, specificity, accuracy, minimal additional costs, and reproducibility are already encouraging.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network (ANN); Support Vector Machine (SVM); algorithm; breast cancer; predictive models.

Figure 1

Cases of recurrence and death from breast cancer in 100 mo

Figure 2

Length of the follow‐up

Figure 3

ROC curves for loco‐regional recurrence. Blue line = SVM; Red line = Artificial Neural Network Source: SPSS Modeler.

Figure 4

ROC curves for systemic recurrence. Blue line = SVM; red line = Artificial Neural Network Source: SPSS Modeler.

Figure 5

ROC curves for death from breast cancer. Blue line = SVM; red line = Artificial Neural Network Source: SPSS Modeler.