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. 2020 Mar;25(9):2000202.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.9.2000202.

Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020

Helen C Johnson  1   2 , Céline M Gossner  1   2 , Edoardo Colzani  1 , John Kinsman  1 , Leonidas Alexakis  1 , Julien Beauté  1 , Andrea Würz  1 , Svetla Tsolova  1 , Nick Bundle  1 , Karl Ekdahl  1
Affiliations

Potential scenarios for the progression of a COVID-19 epidemic in the European Union and the European Economic Area, March 2020

Helen C Johnson et al. Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar.

Abstract

Two months after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the possibility of established and widespread community transmission in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) is becoming more likely. We provide scenarios for use in preparedness for a possible widespread epidemic. The EU/EEA is moving towards the 'limited sustained transmission' phase. We propose actions to prepare for potential mitigation phases and coordinate efforts to protect the health of citizens.

Keywords: COVID-19; Europe; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; pandemic; preparedness.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure
Figure
Scenarios for the potential spread and impact of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA, with suggested actions for containment and mitigation, March 2020
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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