Machine learning and radiomic phenotyping of lower grade gliomas: improving survival prediction

Abstract

Background and purpose: Recent studies have highlighted the importance of isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutational status in stratifying biologically distinct subgroups of gliomas. This study aimed to evaluate whether MRI-based radiomic features could improve the accuracy of survival predictions for lower grade gliomas over clinical and IDH status.

Materials and methods: Radiomic features (n = 250) were extracted from preoperative MRI data of 296 lower grade glioma patients from databases at our institutional (n = 205) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA)/The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA) (n = 91) datasets. For predicting overall survival, random survival forest models were trained with radiomic features; non-imaging prognostic factors including age, resection extent, WHO grade, and IDH status on the institutional dataset, and validated on the TCGA/TCIA dataset. The performance of the random survival forest (RSF) model and incremental value of radiomic features were assessed by time-dependent receiver operating characteristics.

Results: The radiomics RSF model identified 71 radiomic features to predict overall survival, which were successfully validated on TCGA/TCIA dataset (iAUC, 0.620; 95% CI, 0.501-0.756). Relative to the RSF model from the non-imaging prognostic parameters, the addition of radiomic features significantly improved the overall survival prediction accuracy of the random survival forest model (iAUC, 0.627 vs. 0.709; difference, 0.097; 95% CI, 0.003-0.209).

Conclusion: Radiomic phenotyping with machine learning can improve survival prediction over clinical profile and genomic data for lower grade gliomas.

Key points: • Radiomics analysis with machine learning can improve survival prediction over the non-imaging factors (clinical and molecular profiles) for lower grade gliomas, across different institutions.

Keywords: Glioma; Machine learning; Prognosis; Survival.