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. 2020 Jun;26(6):1339-1441.
doi: 10.3201/eid2606.200320. Epub 2020 Jun 17.

Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality

Nick Wilson, Amanda Kvalsvig, Lucy Telfar Barnard, Michael G Baker

Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality

Nick Wilson et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jun.

Abstract

We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%-3.0% probably should be considered.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus disease; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; case-fatality risk; coronaviruses; pandemic; respiratory diseases; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses; zoonoses.

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