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. 2020 Jun;26(6):1251-1256.
doi: 10.3201/eid2606.200233. Epub 2020 Jun 17.

Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020

Kenji Mizumoto, Gerardo Chowell

Estimating Risk for Death from Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020

Kenji Mizumoto et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jun.

Abstract

Since December 2019, when the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was identified in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China, the epidemic has generated tens of thousands of cases throughout China. As of February 28, 2020, the cumulative number of reported deaths in China was 2,858. We estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in Wuhan, as well as for China excluding Wuhan, to assess the severity of the epidemic in the country. Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas. The elevated death risk estimates are probably associated with a breakdown of the healthcare system, indicating that enhanced public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic under control.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus disease; CFR; COVID-19; China; Hubei; SARS-CoV-2; Wuhan; case-fatality ratio; coronavirus; death; mortality; outbreak; respiratory diseases; risk; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses; zoonoses.

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Figures

Figure 4
Figure 4
Equation for time-delay adjusted CFR.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Temporal distribution of cases and deaths attributable to coronavirus disease in 3 areas in China, January 1–February 11, 2020. Cumulative cases in A) Wuhan, B) Hubei Province excluding Wuhan City, and C) China excluding Hubei Province, and cumulative deaths in D) Wuhan, E) Hubei Province excluding Wuhan, and F) China excluding Hubei Province. Day 1 corresponds to January 1, 2020. Because the dates of illness onset were not available, we used dates of reporting.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Temporal variation of risk for death associated with coronavirus disease in 3 areas in China, January 1–February 11, 2020. Observed and posterior estimates of A) crude case-fatality ratio in Wuhan, B) Hubei Province excluding Wuhan, and C) China excluding Hubei Province, and D) time-delay adjusted case-fatality ratio in Wuhan, E) Hubei Province excluding Wuhan, and F) China excluding Hubei Province. Day 1 corresponds to January 1, 2020. Black dots show crude case-fatality ratio, light gray area shows 95% credibility interval for posterior estimates, and dark gray area shows 50% credibility intervals for posterior estimates.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Latest estimates of time-delay adjusted risk for death from coronavirus disease in 3 areas in China, January 1–February 11, 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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