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. 2020 Jun;26(6):3715-3725.
doi: 10.1111/gcb.15080. Epub 2020 Apr 8.

Long-term research avoids spurious and misleading trends in sustainability attributes of no-till

Sarah Cusser  1   2 , Christie Bahlai  1   3 , Scott M Swinton  4 , G Philip Robertson  1   5 , Nick M Haddad  1   2
Affiliations

Long-term research avoids spurious and misleading trends in sustainability attributes of no-till

Sarah Cusser et al. Glob Chang Biol. 2020 Jun.

Abstract

Agricultural management recommendations based on short-term studies can produce findings inconsistent with long-term reality. Here, we test the long-term environmental sustainability and profitability of continuous no-till agriculture on yield, soil water availability, and N2 O fluxes. Using a moving window approach, we investigate the development and stability of several attributes of continuous no-till as compared to conventional till agriculture over a 29-year period at a site in the upper Midwest, US. Over a decade is needed to detect the consistent effects of no-till. Both crop yield and soil water availability required 15 years or longer to generate patterns consistent with 29-year trends. Only marginal trends for N2 O fluxes appeared in this period. Relative profitability analysis suggests that after initial implementation, 86% of periods between 10 and 29 years recuperated the initial expense of no-till implementation, with the probability of higher relative profit increasing with longevity. Importantly, statistically significant but misleading short-term trends appeared in more than 20% of the periods examined. Results underscore the importance of decadal and longer studies for revealing consistent dynamics and emergent outcomes of no-till agriculture, shown to be beneficial in the long term.

Keywords: LTER; N2O fluxes; long-term research; moving window; power analysis; profitability of no-till adoption; soil moisture; soil water availability; sustainable intensification; yield.

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References

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