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. 2020 Mar;10(1):107-111.
doi: 10.2991/jegh.k.191028.001.

Epidemiology of Type 2 Diabetes - Global Burden of Disease and Forecasted Trends

Moien Abdul Basith Khan  1 , Muhammad Jawad Hashim  1 , Jeffrey Kwan King  1 , Romona Devi Govender  1 , Halla Mustafa  1 , Juma Al Kaabi  2
Affiliations

Epidemiology of Type 2 Diabetes - Global Burden of Disease and Forecasted Trends

Moien Abdul Basith Khan et al. J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2020 Mar.

Abstract

The rising burden of type 2 diabetes is a major concern in healthcare worldwide. This research aimed to analyze the global epidemiology of type 2 diabetes. We analyzed the incidence, prevalence, and burden of suffering of diabetes mellitus based on epidemiological data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) current dataset from the Institute of Health Metrics, Seattle. Global and regional trends from 1990 to 2017 of type 2 diabetes for all ages were compiled. Forecast estimates were obtained using the SPSS Time Series Modeler. In 2017, approximately 462 million individuals were affected by type 2 diabetes corresponding to 6.28% of the world's population (4.4% of those aged 15-49 years, 15% of those aged 50-69, and 22% of those aged 70+), or a prevalence rate of 6059 cases per 100,000. Over 1 million deaths per year can be attributed to diabetes alone, making it the ninth leading cause of mortality. The burden of diabetes mellitus is rising globally, and at a much faster rate in developed regions, such as Western Europe. The gender distribution is equal, and the incidence peaks at around 55 years of age. Global prevalence of type 2 diabetes is projected to increase to 7079 individuals per 100,000 by 2030, reflecting a continued rise across all regions of the world. There are concerning trends of rising prevalence in lower-income countries. Urgent public health and clinical preventive measures are warranted.

Keywords: Diabetes mellitus type 2; disease pattern; epidemiology; prevalence.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare they have no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Global distribution of diabetes mellitus type 2 prevalence. Note: Colors indicate prevalence rates per 100,000 population in 2017.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Trends in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Note: Forecast estimates using SPSS Time Series Modeler (Ljung Box Q, p = 0.16). Dotted lines indicate upper and lower confidence limits.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Age distribution of diabetes mellitus type 2, worldwide. (A) Incidence vs. prevalence (both 2017). (B) Incidence in 1990 vs. 2017. p < 0.0001, chi-square test.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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