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Comment
. 2020 May 19;172(10):699-701.
doi: 10.7326/M20-0696. Epub 2020 Mar 16.

Estimation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Burden and Potential for International Dissemination of Infection From Iran

Ashleigh R Tuite  1 , Isaac I Bogoch  2 , Ryan Sherbo  3 , Alexander Watts  3 , David Fisman  1 , Kamran Khan  4
Affiliations
Comment

Estimation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Burden and Potential for International Dissemination of Infection From Iran

Ashleigh R Tuite et al. Ann Intern Med. .
No abstract available

Keywords: Arabic people; COVID-19; Infectious diseases; Information storage and retrieval; Intelligence; Metastasis; Prevention, policy, and public health.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Top 20 international cities connected to Iran by commercial air travel and associated vulnerability to infectious disease outbreaks. Vulnerability is measured at the country level by using the IDVI score, with a lower value indicating reduced capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries with the lowest IDVI scores are indicated in green. The top 20 cities accounted for 70% of international outbound traveler volumes from Iran in February 2019. The first and 20th ranked cities, Istanbul and Milan, had 46 550 and 2500 outbound passengers, respectively, during this period. IDVI = Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Estimated outbreak size in Iran required to observe exported cases internationally. The estimated cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in Iran required to observe 3 cases exported to UAE, LBN, and CAN is shown in green. We also estimated the outbreak size required under alternate scenarios, including no additional exported cases to any other international destinations despite perfect case detection and 1 additional exported case to IRQ, AZE, or SYR (independently or to all 3 countries). Mean and 95% CIs are presented. The rate at which persons become infected while in Iran was assumed to be the same for residents and visitors. The rate of infection among air passengers (λ) was estimated as number of exported cases ÷ person-time at risk while in Iran. Person-time at risk was calculated as number of outbound air passengers × (average length of stay for visitors × proportion of air passengers who are visitors + outbreak duration × proportion of air passengers who are residents of Iran). Outbreak size in Iran was then estimated as λ × population size of Iran × outbreak duration. AZE = Azerbaijan; CAN = Canada; COVID-19 = coronavirus disease 2019; IRQ = Iraq; LBN = Lebanon; SYR = Syria; UAE = United Arab Emirates.
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Comment in

Comment on

  • Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings.
    Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, Hanage WP, Van Kerkhove MD, Hollingsworth TD, Griffin J, Baggaley RF, Jenkins HE, Lyons EJ, Jombart T, Hinsley WR, Grassly NC, Balloux F, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Rambaut A, Pybus OG, Lopez-Gatell H, Alpuche-Aranda CM, Chapela IB, Zavala EP, Guevara DM, Checchi F, Garcia E, Hugonnet S, Roth C; WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration. Fraser C, et al. Science. 2009 Jun 19;324(5934):1557-61. doi: 10.1126/science.1176062. Epub 2009 May 11. Science. 2009. PMID: 19433588 Free PMC article.

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