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. 2020 Apr;52(2):351-358.
doi: 10.4143/crt.2020.203. Epub 2020 Mar 16.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2020

Kyu-Won Jung  1   2 , Young-Joo Won  1   2   3 , Seri Hong  1   2 , Hyun-Joo Kong  1   2 , Eun Sook Lee  1   4
Affiliations

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2020

Kyu-Won Jung et al. Cancer Res Treat. 2020 Apr.

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2020 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.

Materials and methods: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2017 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2018 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A Joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend.

Results: In total, 243,263 new cancer cases and 80,546 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2020. The most common cancer site is expected to be the lung, followed by the stomach, thyroid, colon/rectum, and breast. These five cancers types are expected to represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer among people who die is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colon/rectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.

Conclusion: The incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to decrease gradually. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.

Keywords: 2020; Forecasting; Incidence; Korea; Mortality; Neoplasms.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest relevant to this article was not reported.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2020. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2020 in Korea. (A) Men. (B) Women.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2020 in Korea. (A) Men. (B). Women.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Statistics Korea [Internet] Daejeon: Statistics Korea; 2020. [cited 2020 Feb 8]. Available from: http://kosis.kr.
    1. Jung KW, Won YJ, Kong HJ, Lee ES, Community of Population-Based Regional Cancer Registries Cancer statistics in Korea: incidence, mortality, survival, and prevalence in 2016. Cancer Res Treat. 2019;51:417–30. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Shin HR, Won YJ, Jung KW, Kong HJ, Yim SH, Lee JK, et al. Nationwide cancer incidence in Korea, 1999~2001: first result using the National Cancer Incidence Database. Cancer Res Treat. 2005;37:325–31. - PMC - PubMed
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