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. 2020 Mar 17:148:e56.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268819002188.

Research about the optimal strategies for prevention and control of varicella outbreak in a school in a central city of China: based on an SEIR dynamic model

Wen-Ting Zha  1 , Feng-Rui Pang  1 , Nan Zhou  1 , Bin Wu  1 , Ying Liu  1 , Yan-Bing Du  1 , Xiu-Qin Hong  1 , Yuan Lv  1
Affiliations

Research about the optimal strategies for prevention and control of varicella outbreak in a school in a central city of China: based on an SEIR dynamic model

Wen-Ting Zha et al. Epidemiol Infect. .

Abstract

Varicella is an acute respiratory infectious diseases, with high transmissibility and quick dissemination. In this study, an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) dynamic model was established to explore the optimal prevention and control measures according to the epidemiological characteristics about varicella outbreak in a school in a central city of China. Berkeley Madonna 8.3.18 and Microsoft Office Excel 2010 software were employed for the model simulation and data management, respectively. The result showed that the simulated result of SEIR model agreed well with the reported data when β (infected rate) equal to 0.067. Models showed that the cumulative number of cases was only 13 when isolation adopted when the infected individuals were identified (assuming isolation rate was up to 100%); the cumulative number of cases was only two and the TAR (total attack rate) was 0.56% when the vaccination coefficient reached 50%. The cumulative number of cases did not change significantly with the change of efficiency of ventilation and disinfection, but the peak time was delayed; when δ (vaccination coefficient) = 0.1, m (ventilation efficiency) = 0.7 or δ = 0.2, m = 0.5 or δ = 0.3, m = 0.1 or δ = 0.4 and above, the cumulative number of cases would reduce to one case and TAR would reduce to 0.28% with combined interventions. Varicella outbreak in school could be controlled through strict isolation or vaccination singly; combined interventions have been adopted when the vaccination coefficient was low.

Keywords: Isolation; SEIR model; vaccine; varicella; ventilation and disinfection.

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Conflict of interest statement

On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Flow chart of models of varicella outbreak in school.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
The distribution of time among students in the outbreak.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
The result of curve fitting of outbreak data and SEIR model.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
The control effect of isolation, vaccination, ventilation and disinfection.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.
The control effect of combined intervention.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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