Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2020 Mar 12;12(3):e7250.
doi: 10.7759/cureus.7250.

Global Trends and Forecast of the Burden of Adverse Effects of Medical Treatment: Epidemiological Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study

Moien Ab Khan  1 , Elpidoforos S Soteriades  2 , Jeff King  3 , Romona Govender  3 , Muhammad Jawad Hashim  1 , Shamaila Masood-Husain  4 , Syed Fahad Javaid  5 , Shaikha Debaib Mohammed Saeed Al Darei  6 , Shamma Dahi Al Sheryani  7 , Javaid Nauman  2
Affiliations

Global Trends and Forecast of the Burden of Adverse Effects of Medical Treatment: Epidemiological Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study

Moien Ab Khan et al. Cureus. .

Abstract

Aim To quantify and update the years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) due to the adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) between 1990 and 2017. Subject and methods We analyzed the latest dataset from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. We described the burden of AEMT based on the number of DALY. We additionally evaluated the global age and sex-specific DALY and compared the age-standardized rates of DALY across the World Health Organization (WHO) regions from 1990 to 2017. Results Worldwide, the total DALYs due to AEMT were 84.93 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 62.52 to 102.21] in 1990 and 62.79 (52.09 to 75.45) in 2017 per 100,000 population. The global percentage of change in DALY showed a negative trend of -26.06 % (-41.52 to -10.59) across all WHO regions between 1990 and 2017. The YLD has increased during the period from 1997 to 2017 by 29.47% (17.87 to 41.06). In 2017, men were affected more than women with a DALY of 66.78 in comparison to 58.91 DALY in women. DALY rates per 100,000 were highest across all the WHO regions in the first years of life. The predicted DALY rates were 59.92 (57.52 to 62.32) in the year 2020, 50.36 (32.03 to 68.70) in 2030, and 40.8 (-1.33 to 82.93) in 2040. Conclusion Using the GBD 2017 study data, we found a decrease in the DALY rate due to AEMT between 1990 and 2017 with a varying range of DALY between different WHO regions. DALY also differed by age and sex. The forecasting analyses showed a decrease in DALY due to AEMTs with a significant drop in the European region when compared to the African and American regions. However, the increasing trend for YLD signifies an increasing burden of people living with poor health due to AEMT. Our study proposes to identify disability due to AEMT as a significant public health crisis and calls for policymakers to create a robust revised policy.

Keywords: adverse events; complication of treatment; daly; disability; global burden; health care system; health policy; patient safety; yld; yll.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Annual percentage change in age-standardized disability-adjusted life years due to the adverse effects of medical treatment, 1990-2017
0.01 on the color bar graph indicates a 1% annual increase of disability-adjusted life years per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2017 and -0.01 indicates a -1% annual decrease of disability-adjusted life years per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2017 [9].
Figure 2
Figure 2. Annual percentage change in age-standardized years of life lost due to the adverse effects of medical treatment, 1990-2017
0.01 on the color bar graph indicates a 1% annual increase of years of life lost per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2017 and -0.01 indicates a -1% annual decrease of years of life lost per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2017 [9].
Figure 3
Figure 3. Annual percentage change in age-standardized years lived with disability due to the adverse effects of medical treatment, 1990-2017
0.01 on the color bar graph indicates a 1% percent annual increase of years lived with disability per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2017 and -0.01 indicates a -1% percent annual decrease of years lived with disability per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2017 [9].
Figure 4
Figure 4. Sex stratified trends in disability-adjusted life years due to the adverse effects of medical treatment by World Health Organizational regions, 1990-2017
DALY: Disability Adjusted Life Years The estimates are age-standardized per 100,000 population.
Figure 5
Figure 5. Age-specific trends in disability-adjusted life years due to adverse effects of medical treatment by World Health Organizational regions, 1990-2017
The figure panes depict the overall disability-adjusted life year rates per 100,000 population globally and across the six World Health Organizational (WHO) regions (African region, Eastern Mediterranean region, European Region, Region of the Americas, Southeast Asian Region, and the Western Pacific Region) during the year 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017.
Figure 6
Figure 6. Forecasted trends for age-standardized disability-adjusted life years due to the adverse effects of medical treatment across World Health Organizational regions
DALY: Disability-Adjusted Life Years
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

References

    1. Institute of Medicine (US) Committee on Quality of Health Care in America. Institute of Medicine (US) Committee on Quality of Health Care in America. https://www-ncbi-nlm-nih-gov.uaeu.idm.oclc.org/books/NBK225187/ Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2000. To Err is Human: Building a Safer Health System; p. 1. - PubMed
    1. “To err is human”: a report from the Institute of Medicine. Havens DH, Boroughs L. J Pediatr Health Care. 2000;14:77–80. - PubMed
    1. Institute of Medicine report: crossing the quality chasm: a new health care system for the 21st century. Wolfe A. Policy Politics Nurs Pract. 2001;2:233–235.
    1. The incidence and nature of in-hospital adverse events: a systematic review. de Vries EN, Ramrattan MA, Smorenburg SM, Gouma DJ, Boermeester MA. BMJ Qual Saf. 2008;17:216–223. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Medical error—the third leading cause of death in the US. Makary MA, Daniel M. BMJ. 2016;353:0. - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources