Odds ratios and hurdle models: a long-term analysis of parasite infection patterns in endangered young-of-the-year suckers from Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, USA

Abstract

We used odds ratios and a hurdle model to analyze parasite co-infections over 25 years on >20,000 young-of-the year of endangered Shortnose and Lost River Suckers. Host ecologies differed as did parasite infections. Shortnose Suckers were more likely to be caught inshore and 3-5 times more likely to have Bolbophorus spp. and Contracaecum sp. infections, and Lost River Suckers were more likely to be caught offshore and approximately three times more likely to have Lernaea cyprinacea infections. An observed peak shift seems likely to be due to a lower host size limit for Bolbophorus spp. (13.6 mm) compared with L. cyprinacea (23.4 mm). The large data set allowed us to generate strong hypotheses: (i) that a major marsh restoration project had unintended consequences that resulted in an increase in infections; (ii) that co-infection with Bolbophorus spp. increased the odds of infection by L. cyprinacea and Contracaecum sp.; (iii) that significant declines in the odds of infection over approximately 25 days were due to parasite-induced host mortality; (iv) that the fish's small size relative to L. cyprinacea and Contracaecum sp. might be directly lethal; (v) that the absence of L. cyprinacea infections in the early 1990s was associated with good year-class production of the suckers; and (vi) that parasites might increase the odds of vagrancy from the nursery ground.

Keywords: Bolbophorus; Co-infection; Contracaecum; Lernaea; Mortality; Odds ratios; Peak shift.