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. 2020 Mar;25(12):2000293.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293.

Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020

Giorgio Guzzetta  1 , Piero Poletti  1 , Marco Ajelli  1 , Filippo Trentini  1 , Valentina Marziano  1 , Danilo Cereda  2 , Marcello Tirani  2   3 , Giulio Diurno  2 , Annalisa Bodina  2 , Antonio Barone  2 , Lucia Crottogini  2 , Maria Gramegna  2 , Alessia Melegaro  4   5 , Stefano Merler  1   5
Affiliations

Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020

Giorgio Guzzetta et al. Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar.

Abstract

Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Lombardy outbreak; SARS-CoV-2; modelling.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Observed and estimated cumulative number of reported coronavirus disease cases aggregated over 593 municipalities (population 6.9 million), Lombardy, 1–27 February 2020 (n = 1,400 observed cases)
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age distribution of reported cases (n = 1,400) and of patients either deceased or requiring intensive care (n = 278), compared with corresponding model estimates, Lombardy line list, 1–27 February 2020
Figure 3
Figure 3
Projected daily number of reported and critical cases, aggregated over 593 municipalities, Lombardy, 9 and 28 March 2020
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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