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. 2020 Mar;25(12):2000256.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256.

Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020

Timothy W Russell  1 , Joel Hellewell  1   2 , Christopher I Jarvis  1   2 , Kevin van Zandvoort  1   2 , Sam Abbott  1 , Ruwan Ratnayake  1   3 ; CMMID COVID-19 working group  4 ; Stefan Flasche  1 , Rosalind M Eggo  1 , W John Edmunds  1 , Adam J Kucharski  1
Affiliations

Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020

Timothy W Russell et al. Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar.

Abstract

Adjusting for delay from confirmation to death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-6.7) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.38-3.6), respectively. Comparing deaths on board with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates from China, we estimated CFR and IFR in China to be 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3-2.7) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2-1.3), respectively.

Keywords: COVID-19; Case fatality ratio; asymptomatic; coronavirus; cruise ship; infection fatality ratio; outbreak; severity.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure
Figure
The time-to-death distributions and case and death data used to calculate the corrected case fatality estimates, Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020 (n = 3,711)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID). Field Briefing: Diamond Princess COVID-19 Cases. Tokyo: NIID; 19 Feb 2020. Available from: https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html
    1. National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID). Field Briefing: Diamond Princess COVID-19 Cases. Tokyo: NIID; 19 Feb 2020. Available from: https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9417-covid-dp-fe-02.html
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    1. World Health Organization (WHO) and others. Report of the WHO-China joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Geneva: WHO; 28 Februrary 2020. Available from https://www.who.int/publications-detail/report-of-the-who-china-joint-mi...
    1. Kucharski AJ, Edmunds WJ. Case fatality rate for Ebola virus disease in west Africa. Lancet. 2014;384(9950):1260. 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61706-2 - DOI - PubMed

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