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. 2020 May 8;368(6491):638-642.
doi: 10.1126/science.abb6105. Epub 2020 Mar 31.

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Huaiyu Tian #  1 , Yonghong Liu #  2 , Yidan Li #  2 , Chieh-Hsi Wu #  3 , Bin Chen #  4 , Moritz U G Kraemer  5   6   7 , Bingying Li  2 , Jun Cai  8 , Bo Xu  8 , Qiqi Yang  2 , Ben Wang  2 , Peng Yang  9 , Yujun Cui  10 , Yimeng Song  11 , Pai Zheng  12 , Quanyi Wang  9 , Ottar N Bjornstad  13   14 , Ruifu Yang  15 , Bryan T Grenfell  16   17 , Oliver G Pybus  18 , Christopher Dye  18   19
Affiliations

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Huaiyu Tian et al. Science. .

Abstract

Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Dates of discovery of the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 and of the implementation of control measures in China, from 31 December 2019.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. The dispersal of COVID-19 in China 15 days before and 25 days after the Spring Festival (Chinese Lunar New Year).
(A) Movement outflows from Wuhan city during Spring Festival travel in 2017, 2018, and 2020. The vertical dotted line is the date of the Spring Festival (Chinese Lunar New Year). (B) The number of recorded movements from Wuhan city to other provinces during the 15 days before the Spring Festival in 2020. The shading from light to dark represents the number of human movements from Wuhan to each province. The areas of circles represent the cumulative number of cases reported by 30 January 2020, 1 week after the Wuhan travel ban on 23 January. (C) Association between the cumulative number of confirmed cases reported before 30 January and the number of movements from Wuhan to other provinces.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Spatial dispersal of COVID-19 in China.
(A) Cumulative number of cities reporting cases by 19 February 2020. Arrival days are defined as the time interval (days) from the date of the first case in the first infected city (Wuhan) to the date of the first case in each newly infected city (a total of 324 cities), to characterize the intercity transmission rate of COVID-19. The dashed line indicates the date of the Wuhan travel ban (shutdown). (B) Before (blue) and after (red) the intervention by 30 January 2020, 1 week after the Wuhan travel ban (shutdown). The blue line and points show the fitted regression of arrival times up to the shutdown on day 23 (23 January, vertical dashed line). Gray points show the expected arrival times after day 23, without the shutdown. The red line and points show the fitted regression of delayed arrival times after the shutdown on day 23. Each observation (point) represents one city. Error bars give ±2 standard deviations.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. The role of interventions in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak across China.
(A) Epidemic model (line) fitted to daily reports of confirmed cases (points) summed across 31 provinces. Hubei excludes Wuhan city. (B) Expected epidemic trajectories without the Wuhan travel ban (shutdown), and with (blue) or without (red) interventions carried out as part of the Level 1 national emergency response, with the Wuhan travel ban and with (black) or without (orange) the intervention. Vertical dashed lines in (A) and (B) mark the date of the Wuhan travel ban and the start of the emergency response on 23 January. Shaded regions in (A) and (B) mark the 95% prediction envelopes.
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