Epidemiological trends, predictive factors, and projection of tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030: part II. Edentulism in seniors

Abstract

Objective: This is the second part of a report on tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030. Here, we describe trends in the prevalence of edentulism in seniors 1997-2014, assess predictive factors for edentulism, and projected it into 2030.

Material and methods: We used data from three waves of the cross-sectional, multi-center, nationwide representative German Oral Health Studies. Overall, 3449 seniors (65-74 years) were included (1997: 1367; 2005: 1040; 2016: 1042). Age, sex, educational level, smoking status, and the cohort were entered into age-cohort binary-logistic regression models to assess the association of predictors with edentulism and to project edentulism in 2030 via Monte Carlo simulations.

Results: Between 1997 and 2014, the prevalence of edentulism decreased from 24.8 to 12.4%. With each year of age, the risk of being edentate increased (by 11%, p < 0.001); it was also significantly increased in female versus male (by 40%, p = 0.001), low versus medium and high educational level (up to 257%, p < 0.001), and in former and current smokers (up to 258%, p < 0.001). We predict the prevalence of edentulism to be reduced to 4.2% in 2030. The reduction will be higher in males, never and former smokers, and those with low socio-educational level. On an absolute level and despite a growing elderly population (aged 60-80 years), the number of edentate individuals will have decreased by 3.6 million in 2030 compared with 1997.

Conclusions: Edentulism in seniors has declined equitably in Germany. The decline is expected to continue until 2030. Further efforts are needed to tackle the underlying risk factors.

Clinical relevance: This study presents trends of edentulism in Germany for a period of three decades. It provides clinically relevant data for health care planning by 2030.

Keywords: Cross-sectional study; Demography; Epidemiology; Prediction model; Tooth loss.