Unknown unknowns - COVID-19 and potential global mortality

Abstract

COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is currently a global pandemic. This paper will attempt to estimate global infection rates and potential resultant mortality in the absence of effective treatment and/or vaccination. Calculations are based on World Health Organisation data from Wuhan in China: 14% of infected cases are severe, 5% require intensive care and 4% die. Estimated infection rates and mortality rates at the level of continents and some individual countries (when these are of sufficient size) are tabulated. This pandemic may cause close to half a billion deaths, i.e. 6% of the global population - and potentially more. At the risk of sounding sensational, but with a sober sense of realism, healthcare risks being plunged into the Middle-Ages if the public do not do their part. Infection cannot occur in the absence of contact. The only way to mitigate these numbers is to apply social distancing and take the standard precautions so frequently reiterated by Public Health: hand washing, avoid touching the face and so on. These measures are crucial as the human cost is going to be unthinkable even in the best-case scenarios that epidemiologists are modelling.