Inequalities in life expectancy: An analysis of 201 countries, 1950-2015

Abstract

With global improvements in life expectancy, one important concern is to understand whether there is reduction in inequalities or greater cross-country convergence in expected length of life at various age thresholds. Insights on convergence patterns can help governments and other stakeholders decide upon health investments across age groups. This paper applies a novel econometric approach to test convergence and identify convergent clubs in life expectancy at various age groups for 201 countries/areas between 1950 and 2015. Life expectancy estimates for 201 countries/areas (1950 and 2015) from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) World Population Prospects (2015 Revision) are used for the analysis. We find global convergence in life expectancy at birth, but do not observe grand convergence for any other age groups. In the case of life expectancy at younger ages, most countries are moving in the same direction, but significant cross-country variations and convergence clubs are noted for older adults and elderly. Most of the better performing countries/areas are from Western Europe, Northern Europe and North America, the average performers are from South America, Eastern Europe, Southern Europe, South Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Africa, Central Africa, and the Caribbean Islands whereas the poor-performing ones are mainly Western Africa, Southern African and Oceania. In addition, we observe increasing between-country variance in life expectancy for older adults and elderly. The analysis reveals increasing global heterogeneity in the survival experience of older adults and the elderly population which has remained a neglected aspect in the discussions on global life expectancy improvements. Data, research and policy focus on life-expectancy at older ages is therefore critical to accelerate survival gains among older adults and elderly, particularly from the developing world.

Keywords: Aging; Convergence; Global health; Life expectancy.