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. 2020 May:94:96-102.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.076. Epub 2020 Apr 3.

Spatial epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Dayun Kang  1 , Hyunho Choi  1 , Jong-Hun Kim  2 , Jungsoon Choi  3
Affiliations

Spatial epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Dayun Kang et al. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 May.

Abstract

Background: On 31 December 2019 an outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, was reported. The outbreak spread rapidly to other Chinese cities and multiple countries. This study described the spatio-temporal pattern and measured the spatial association of the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China from 16 January-06 February 2020.

Methods: This study explored the spatial epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in mainland China. Moran's I spatial statistic with various definitions of neighbours was used to conduct a test to determine whether a spatial association of the COVID-19 infections existed.

Results: The spatial spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in China was observed. The results showed that most of the models, except medical-care-based connection models, indicated a significant spatial association of COVID-19 infections from around 22 January 2020.

Conclusions: Spatial analysis is of great help in understanding the spread of infectious diseases, and spatial association was the key to the spatial spread during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China.

Keywords: COVID-19; China; Spatial analysis; Spatial autocorrelation.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Map of the cumulative cases of COVID-19 in mainland China.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Choropleth map of population information. (a) population; (b) population density.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Choropleth map of medical care information. (a) Number of doctors; (b) Number of hospital beds.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Time series plot of the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in mainland China.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Plots of the incidence in Hubei (upper panel) and in provinces neighbouring Hubei (lower panel).
Figure 6
Figure 6
Plots of Moran’s I statistic and p-values.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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