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. 2020 Apr;25(13):2000280.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.13.2000280.

Only strict quarantine measures can curb the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy, 2020

Henrik Sjödin  1 , Annelies Wilder-Smith  2   3   4 , Sarah Osman  2 , Zia Farooq  1 , Joacim Rocklöv  1
Affiliations

Only strict quarantine measures can curb the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy, 2020

Henrik Sjödin et al. Euro Surveill. 2020 Apr.

Abstract

Several Italian towns are under lockdown to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. The level of transmission reduction required for physical distancing interventions to mitigate the epidemic is a crucial question. We show that very high adherence to community quarantine (total stay-home policy) and a small household size is necessary for curbing the outbreak in a locked-down town. The larger the household size and amount of time in the public, the longer the lockdown period needed.

Keywords: COVID-19; Outbreak; SARS-CoV-2; Social distancing; coronavirus; isolation and quarantine.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Estimation of the number of total secondary cases (panels A, D, G) during the 14-days period and the (panels B, E, H) latent and (panels C, F, I) infectious cases of COVID-19 at the end of a 14-days lockdown of a city with a population of 5,000 persons, depending on the degree of community quarantine adherencea, the size of quarantine units and the proportion of asymptomatic cases
Figure 2
Figure 2
Estimation of the required duration of a lockdown with quarantine, to contain a COVID-19 outbreak in a city of 5,000 inhabitants, depending on the quarantine adherence strictness and household size
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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