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Multicenter Study
. 2021 Jan;73(1):219-232.
doi: 10.1002/hep.31264. Epub 2020 Nov 9.

Mortality and Hepatic Decompensation in Patients With Cirrhosis and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Anticoagulation

Marina Serper  1   2   3 , Ethan M Weinberg  2 , Jordana B Cohen  4   5 , Peter P Reese  3   4   5 , Tamar H Taddei  6   7 , David E Kaplan  1   2
Affiliations
Multicenter Study

Mortality and Hepatic Decompensation in Patients With Cirrhosis and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Anticoagulation

Marina Serper et al. Hepatology. 2021 Jan.

Abstract

Background and aims: Outcomes with anticoagulation (AC) are understudied in advanced liver disease. We investigated effects of AC with warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) on all-cause mortality and hepatic decompensation as well as ischemic stroke, major adverse cardiovascular events, splanchnic vein thrombosis, and bleeding in a cohort with cirrhosis and atrial fibrillation (AF).

Approach and results: This was a retrospective, longitudinal study using national data of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis at 128 medical centers, including patients with cirrhosis with incident AF, from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2017 followed through December 31, 2018. To assess the effects of AC on outcomes, we applied propensity score (PS) matching and marginal structural models (MSMs) to account for confounding by indication and time-dependent confounding. The final cohort included 2,694 veterans with cirrhosis with AF (n = 1,694 and n = 704 in the warfarin and DOAC cohorts after PS matching, respectively) with a median of 4.6 years of follow-up. All-cause mortality was lower with warfarin versus no AC (PS matched: hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.76; MSM models: HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73) and DOACs versus no AC (PS matched: HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.50-0.93; MSM models: HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.81). In MSM models, warfarin (HR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.09-0.90) and DOACs (HR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.07-0.79) were associated with reduced ischemic stroke. In secondary analyses, bleeding was lower with DOACs compared to warfarin (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.94).

Conclusions: Warfarin and DOACs were associated with reduced all-cause mortality. Warfarin was associated with more bleeding compared to no AC. DOACs had a lower incidence of bleeding compared to warfarin in exploratory analyses. Future studies should prospectively investigate these observed associations.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Panel A. Kaplan-Meier Curve of All-Cause Mortality: Warfarin versus no AC in a Propensity-Matched Cohort (n=1694) Panel B. Kaplan-Meier Curve of All-Cause Mortality: DOAC versus no AC in a Propensity-Matched Cohort (n=704)
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Panel A. Kaplan-Meier Curve of Hepatic Decompensation: Warfarin versus no AC in a Propensity-Matched Cohort (n=1164) Panel B. Kaplan-Meier Curve of Hepatic Decompensation: DOAC versus no AC in a Propensity-Matched Sample (n=704)
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Cumulative Hazard of Bleeding in Propensity-Matched Cohort of Patients on Warfarin versus DOACs (n=549)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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