Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2020 Apr 8;82(4):52.
doi: 10.1007/s11538-020-00726-x.

Commentary on Ferguson, et al., "Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand"

S Eubank  1   2 , I Eckstrand  3 , B Lewis  3 , S Venkatramanan  3 , M Marathe  3   4 , C L Barrett  3   4
Affiliations

Commentary on Ferguson, et al., "Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand"

S Eubank et al. Bull Math Biol. .

Abstract

A recent manuscript (Ferguson et al. in Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, London, 2020. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf) from Imperial College modelers examining ways to mitigate and control the spread of COVID-19 has attracted much attention. In this paper, we will discuss a coarse taxonomy of models and explore the context and significance of the Imperial College and other models in contributing to the analysis of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19; Compartmental model; Epidemiology; Non-pharmaceutical intervention.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest

References

    1. Abbey H. An examination of the Reed–Frost theory of epidemics. Hum Biol. 1952;24(3):201. - PubMed
    1. Ball F. A threshold theorem for the Reed–Frost chain-binomial epidemic. J Appl Probab. 1983;20(1):153–157. doi: 10.2307/3213729. - DOI
    1. Black FL, Singer B. Elaboration versus simplification in refining mathematical models of infectious disease. Annu Rev Microbiol. 1987;41(1):677–701. doi: 10.1146/annurev.mi.41.100187.003333. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Eubank S, Guclu H, Kumar VA, Marathe MV, Srinivasan A, Toroczkai Z, Wang N. Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks. Nature. 2004;429(6988):180–184. doi: 10.1038/nature02541. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Ferguson NM, Keeling MJ, Edmunds WJ, Gani R, Grenfell BT, Anderson RM, Leach S. Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature. 2003;425(6959):681–685. doi: 10.1038/nature02007. - DOI - PMC - PubMed

MeSH terms