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. 2020 Jun;48(3):483-486.
doi: 10.1007/s15010-020-01420-9. Epub 2020 Apr 9.

SARS-CoV-2 and Europe: timing of containment measures for outbreak control

Chenyu Li  1 , Paola Romagnani  2 , Albrecht von Brunn  3 , Hans-Joachim Anders  4
Affiliations

SARS-CoV-2 and Europe: timing of containment measures for outbreak control

Chenyu Li et al. Infection. 2020 Jun.
No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The normalized cumulative curve for the number of cases infected with SARS-CoV-2. The logarithmic scale presents the exponential trend in an apparently linear fashion. The dotted lines represent the days after the outbreak when restrictive containment measures had been installed by the national authorities. Data source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Real-time basic reproduction number (R0) curve for European Union, Italy, Singapore, South Korea, and China. If R0 I < 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection and the disease will decline. If R0 = 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there will not be an outbreak or an epidemic. If R0 > 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic. R0 was calculated by using EpiEstim package based on a serial interval of 4.4 days. Data source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Fitting of the cumulative curve of measured infected patients in the European countries and South Korea based on historical Chinese data. The red line represents the exponential curve estimated based on the last basic reproduction number. The blue dotted line represents the reported cases starting from the time-point of each national outbreak as indicated in the red x-axis for each country, respectively. The black dotted line represents cumulative curve of number of infected patients based on historical Chinese data with the gray area for 1 to 3 days incubation periods. A black arrow indicates the relative time point when Wuhan/China installed restrictive containment measures to illustrate the respective delay for each country. The horizontal red line indicates the number of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases at the time of national lockdown. The curves were estimated based on basic reproduction number which calculated by using EpiEstim package with a serial interval of 4.4 days. Data source: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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