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. 2020 Apr 10;91(3-S):175-179.
doi: 10.23750/abm.v91i3-S.9511.

COVID-19 in Italy: impact of containment measures and prevalence estimates of infection in the general population

Carlo Signorelli  1 , Thea Scognamiglio  2 , Anna Odone  3
Affiliations

COVID-19 in Italy: impact of containment measures and prevalence estimates of infection in the general population

Carlo Signorelli et al. Acta Biomed. .

Abstract

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, the Italian Government implemented several restrictive measures to contain the spread of the infection. Data shows that, among these measures, the lockdown implemented as of 9 March had a positive impact, in particular the central and southern regions of Italy, while other actions appeared to be less effective. When the true prevalence of a disease is unknown, it is possible estimate it, based on mortality data and the assumptive case-fatality rate of the disease. Given these assumptions, the estimated period-prevalence of COVID-19 in Italy varies from 0.35% in Sicity to 13.3% in Lombardy.

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Conflict of interest statement

Each author declares that he or she has no commercial associations (e.g. consultancies, stock ownership, equity interest, patent/licensing arrangement etc.) that might pose a conflict of interest in connection with the submitted article

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
First “Red Zone” Area (February 23rd)
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Missed “Red Zone” Area (March 3rd), from Regione Lombardia & Corriere della Sera
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Trend of overall new notified cases in Italy (Protezione civile, 7,4,2020)1
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Estimate of Period Prevalence of infected people in the Italian regions as at 7 April, 2020
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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